Yunnan Yukun
vs
Dalian Zhixing
Super League prediction
The model makes it 57% Yunnan Yukun, 19% draw, 24% Dalian Zhixing — fair odds of 1.75, 5.26 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.56, Dalian Zhixing 1.63.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Yunnan Yukun
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
- L2-3away to Tianjin Teda1 August 2026
- W4-3Sichuan Jiuniu26 July 2026
- D2-2SHANGHAI SIPG17 July 2026
- L3-4away to Shandong Luneng10 July 2026
Dalian Zhixing
- W1-0Shenyang Urban8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye31 July 2026
- L2-3away to Hangzhou Greentown26 July 2026
- W3-1Shandong Luneng18 July 2026
- W3-2Wuhan Three Towns4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 31 |
| 3 | Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Yunnan Yukun
- O. Maritu16 goals6 assists
Dalian Zhixing
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Yunnan Yukun carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.27 for Dalian Zhixing. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Yunnan Yukun L-D-W-L-W; Dalian Zhixing W-W-L-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.63 for Dalian Zhixing. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Yunnan Yukun rate 0.67 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dalian Zhixing rate 0.63 and 2.02.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dalian Zhixing, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Yunnan Yukun a 0% chance of the title and Dalian Zhixing 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Yunnan Yukun the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun against 1.63 for Dalian Zhixing. Yunnan Yukun's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.02 for Dalian Zhixing.