Atlante FC vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 0-0 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Atlante FC, 24% draw, 37% Toluca — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlante FC at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Toluca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. JimenezG
- 29W. PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirosD
- 34E. JimenezD
- 10O. Vazquez
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7Jhojan JulioF
- 33Garcia JordanG
- 3L. SanchezD
- 32D. O. Bagui TobarD
- 14C. AlfaroD
- 37W. ClarD
- 13M. Garcia PardoM
- 21J. IbarraM
- 30Martin SarrafioreM
- 11J. MoxicaF
- 22L. GarciaG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 4Bruno MendezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. del VillarD
- 17B. A. Garcia CaprizoD
- 10J. AnguloM
- 5F. RomeroM
- 35E. GutierrezM
- 29J. Diaz PriceF
- 16F. VinasF
- 1H. GonzalezG
- 13LuanD
- 3A. BrisenoD
- 184S. AcevesM
- 24F. ArceM
- 7V. GuzmanM
- 192L. NavarreteD
- 11HelinhoF
- 15P. PerezM
Form going into Atlante FC vs Toluca
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs Toluca
- 10 July 2026Atlante FC 3–3 TolucaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Toluca
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlante FC and Toluca drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlante FC at 39% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.86.