Atlante FC
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 39% Atlante FC, 24% draw, 37% Toluca — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.65, Toluca 1.62.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atlante FC
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026
Toluca
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atlante FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Atlante FC
- E. Pizzuto2 goals
Toluca
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlante FC carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.62 for Toluca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlante FC L-D-W; Toluca W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Atlante FC and 1.62 for Toluca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlante FC rate 0.71 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toluca rate 0.77 and 1.23.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Toluca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlante FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Atlante FC against 1.62 for Toluca. Atlante FC's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.23 for Toluca.