NK Varazdin
vs
HNK Rijeka
HNL prediction
The model makes it 39% NK Varazdin, 32% draw, 29% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NK Varazdin 1.08, HNK Rijeka 0.90.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Varazdin
- W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Varazdin carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.61 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Varazdin W; HNK Rijeka W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.90 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Varazdin rate 0.57 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.58 and 1.00.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour HNK Rijeka, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 0.9 for HNK Rijeka. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1 for HNK Rijeka.