16 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Varazdin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: NK Varazdin 2-0 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% NK Varazdin, 29% draw, 29% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Varazdin at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Varazdin99%Draw1%HNK Rijeka0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gregor Sikošek
11'
🔁R. Puncecout: N. Tepsic
17'
⚽I. Mamutassist: I. Tavares
20'
⚽I. Mamut (pen)
31'
46'
🔁T. Dantasout: I. Cubelic
46'
🔁A. Gojakout: J. Puljic
Aleksa Latković
51'
65'
Moreno Živković
67'
🔁G. Rukavinaout: A. Orec
67'
🔁M. Zivkovicout: Y. Kabadayi
🔁I. Mamutout: L. Skaricic
75'
🔁A. Latkovicout: M. Vuk
75'
76'
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: T. Fruk
🔁M. Marinaout: T. Duvnjak
84'
🔁I. Tavaresout: E. Uchegbu
84'

Match stats — NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

38%Possession62%
8Shots15
4On target3
2Corners9
1.75xG0.72

Goals against chances

NK Varazdin2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
HNK Rijeka0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilicG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 14R. PuncecD
  • 20G. SikosekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovicM
  • 22L. MamicM
  • 38I. TavaresM
  • 17I. MamutF
Substitutes
  • 1O. ZelenikaG
  • 4L. SkaricicD
  • 5S. LesjakD
  • 3E. DurakovicD
  • 16N. TepsicD
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
Coach: Nikola Safaric
HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoD
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 21J. PuljicF
Coach: Matjaz Kek

Form going into NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

NK Varazdin

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
  • W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to FK Jablonec30 July 2026
  • W3-2FK Jablonec23 July 2026

HNK Rijeka

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Ilves13 August 2026
  • W1-0Ilves6 August 2026
  • W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

What these results say

  • NK Varazdin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • NK Varazdin won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • NK Varazdin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • HNK Rijeka went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Rijeka won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5NK Varazdin135441714+319
6HNK Rijeka125341918+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

  • 22 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 14 February 2026HNK Rijeka 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 9 November 2025NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 24 August 2025HNK Rijeka 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 13 April 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and HNK Rijeka

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Varazdin beat HNK Rijeka 2–0. The model had made a win for NK Varazdin its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Mamut 20' for NK Varazdin, I. Mamut (penalty) 31' for NK Varazdin. On expected goals it finished 1.75–0.72.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.