SpVgg Greuther Fürth
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 53% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 22% draw, 25% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.14, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.97 for 1. FC Nürnberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): SpVgg Greuther Fürth D; 1. FC Nürnberg W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.46 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 1.19 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Nürnberg rate 1.21 and 0.95.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Nürnberg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.46 for 1. FC Nürnberg. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.95 for 1. FC Nürnberg.