SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 23% draw, 28% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Florian HellsternG
- 23Jannik DehmD
- 29Krisztián KeresztesD
- 22Jannis HeuerD
- 27Luca ItterD
- 10Ole PohlmannD
- 8Shinta AppelkampM
- 13Paul WillM
- 6Sacha BanseM
- 30Felix KlausF
- 7Dennis SrbenyF
- 11Aaron KellerM
- 2Lukas ReichD
- 21Mika WallentowitzM
- 42Omar SillahF
- 43Silas PrüfrockG
- 48Jakob KrautkramerD
- 5Maxim DalD
- 17Noah KönigD
- 28Doni ArifiM
- 1Jan ReichertG
- 32Tim JanischD
- 4Alexios KalogeropoulosD
- 20Fynn OttoD
- 41Eric PorstnerD
- 6Adam MarkhievM
- 8Javier FernandezM
- 10Julian JustvanM
- 22Finn Ole BeckerM
- 23Mohamed Ali ZomaM
- 19Piet ScobelF
- 21Giannis MasourasD
- 7Rayan GhriebF
- 18Rafael LubachM
- 35Marc Kornwachs BarjuanD
- 39Adriano GrimaldiF
- 13Robin LisewskiG
- 43Tobias HessD
- 36Kristian MandicD
- 28Can Yahya MoustfaF
Form going into SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- 3 May 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 20251. FC Nürnberg 2–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 16 March 20251. FC Nürnberg 3–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 20 October 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–4 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 25 February 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Nürnberg won 4–2 at SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The model had leaned towards a win for SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 49% and given a win for 1. FC Nürnberg 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. Klaus (penalty) 22' for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, P. Scobel 26' for 1. FC Nürnberg, F. Klaus 41' for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, J. Justvan 45+3' for 1. FC Nürnberg, J. Justvan 54' for 1. FC Nürnberg, P. Scobel 74' for 1. FC Nürnberg. On expected goals it finished 2.75–1.17.