Rodina Moskva
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 92% Rodina Moskva, 5% draw, 3% Akron — fair odds of 1.09, 20.00 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 5.00, Akron 1.08.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 94%, under 2.5: 6%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rodina Moskva
- W2-1away to Zenit9 August 2026
- L2-4FC Rostov31 July 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow25 July 2026
Akron
- D0-0away to Lokomotiv8 August 2026
- L1-2Rubin1 August 2026
- L0-5Zenit25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 14 | Akron | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Rodina Moskva carry a model rating of 6.39 against 5.67 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rodina Moskva L-L-W; Akron L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 5.00 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.08 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rodina Moskva rate 0.88 in attack and 2.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.30 and 3.15.
That points to 94% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 4-1 (7%), 5-1 (7%), 4-0 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Akron, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rodina Moskva the highest probability at 92%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 5 expected goals for Rodina Moskva against 1.08 for Akron. Rodina Moskva's attack/defence rating is 0.88/2.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/3.15 for Akron.