Istra 1961
vs
HNK Gorica
HNL prediction
Our model says: Istra 1961 2–1 HNK Gorica
The model makes it 41% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 31% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Istra 1961 1.70, HNK Gorica 1.30.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Istra 1961 wins, grey are draws, red are HNK Gorica wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
- L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
HNK Gorica
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
- 27 April 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 21 February 2026Istra 1961 0–2 HNK GoricaHNL
- 23 November 2025HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 August 2025Istra 1961 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 12 April 2025HNK Gorica 3–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 31 January 2025Istra 1961 0–0 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
HNK Gorica
- B. Bogojević3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Istra 1961 carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.37 for HNK Gorica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.30 for HNK Gorica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Istra 1961 rate 0.65 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Gorica rate 0.62 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Istra 1961 a 3% chance of the title and HNK Gorica 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Istra 1961 the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.3 for HNK Gorica. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.61 for HNK Gorica.