Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 30% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 4R. KumarD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 13N. SepicD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 8A. MauricM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 9IsaacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 97A. KadusicD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 66M. MomohD
- 5D. HodzicM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 34M. KablarM
- 27D. CelijaF
- 11S. GoricanF
- 1R. JosipovicG
- 2F. BrautD
- 32J. FilipovicD
- 15D. StevanovicD
- 5G. CostaD
- 66J. FriganM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 20L. VrzicM
- 9P. MijicF
- 25B. BogojevicM
- 10F. BrodicM
- 30D. ZarkovG
- 71D. MatijasG
- 45S. PericD
- 34I. CvijanovicD
- 24D. PavicicM
- 4K. CustovicM
- 7O. BakicM
- 8J. PranjicF
- 67T. PrgometM
Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
HNL
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
HNK Gorica
HNL
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
- 27 April 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 21 February 2026Istra 1961 0–2 HNK GoricaHNL
- 23 November 2025HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 August 2025Istra 1961 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 12 April 2025HNK Gorica 3–2 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen84
- H. Jaganjac51
- D. Ahmeti34
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Gorica won 1–0 at Istra 1961. The model had leaned towards a win for Istra 1961 at 42% and given a win for HNK Gorica 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: J. Pranjic 90' for HNK Gorica. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.51.
How the call on Istra 1961 v HNK Gorica has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is HNK Gorica's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Istra 1961 win42%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- HNK Gorica win30%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.