20 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Full time3 – 0

Final score: HNK Rijeka 3-0 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% HNK Rijeka, 30% draw, 33% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Rijeka at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Rijeka99%Draw1%HNK Hajduk Split0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

I. Cubelic
4'
⚽T. Dantasassist: D. Adu Adjei
35'
38'
R. Raci
J. Lasickas
45'
⚽S. Vignatoassist: D. Adu Adjei
45+3'
45+3'
T. Silic
⚽D. Adu Adjei
57'
62'
🔁A. Pajazitiout: A. del Moral
B. Pavic
64'
🔁I. Cubelicout: A. Barco
65'
73'
🔁M. Acapandieout: D. Hadzikadunic
73'
🔁M. Soticekout: C. Martin
🔁J. Lasickasout: M. Devetak
74'
🔁S. Vignatoout: M. Mohebi
74'
75'
K. Fayad
82'
🔁A. Sanyangout: A. Huram
82'
🔁K. Fayadout: D. Melnjak
🔁T. Frukout: A. Gojak
85'
🔁T. Dantasout: N. Jankovic
85'

Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split

41%Possession59%
7Shots13
4On target7
0Corners4
1.46xG1.28

Goals against chances

HNK Rijeka3 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
HNK Hajduk Split0 from 1.28 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 9M. MohebiM
Coach: Matjaz Kek
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 23M. SoticekM
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 6D. HadzikadunicD
  • 38L. HodakD
  • 3R. GabricD
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 77C. MartinF
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Rijeka

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
  • W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
  • L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
  • W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
  • W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa27 August 2026
  • W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Rijeka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka.
  • HNK Hajduk Split won every one of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6HNK Rijeka125341918+118
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 26 April 2026HNK Rijeka 0–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 4 March 2026HNK Rijeka 3–2 HNK Hajduk SplitCup
  • 22 February 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 22 November 2025HNK Rijeka 5–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 31 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 HNK RijekaHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Rijeka beat HNK Hajduk Split 3–0. The model had made a win for HNK Rijeka its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Dantas 35' for HNK Rijeka, S. Vignato 45+3' for HNK Rijeka, D. Adu Adjei 57' for HNK Rijeka. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.28.

How the call on HNK Rijeka v HNK Hajduk Split has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is HNK Rijeka's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. HNK Rijeka win37%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. HNK Hajduk Split win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.