NK Varazdin
vs
NK Osijek
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Osijek
The model makes it 45% NK Varazdin, 27% draw, 28% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Varazdin 1.90, NK Osijek 1.25.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are NK Varazdin wins, grey are draws, red are NK Osijek wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
NK Osijek
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | NK Osijek | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
- 17 April 2026NK Osijek 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 8 February 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 3 December 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 NK OsijekCup
- 2 November 2025NK Osijek 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 17 August 2025NK Varazdin 0–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 17 May 2025NK Varazdin 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
- I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
- L. Mamić3 goals
- A. Latković2 goals1 assists
NK Osijek
- A. León5 goals1 assists
- N. Omerović5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Varazdin carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.38 for NK Osijek. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.25 for NK Osijek. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Varazdin rate 0.62 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Osijek rate 0.72 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Osijek, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Varazdin a 13.6% chance of the title and NK Osijek 22.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 1.25 for NK Osijek. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.88 for NK Osijek.