NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Varazdin 0-0 NK Osijek.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% NK Varazdin, 27% draw, 28% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33J. SilicG
- 23F. MaglicaD
- 13M. MladenovskiD
- 16N. TepsicD
- 20G. SikosekD
- 28I. CanjugaM
- 24M. MarinaM
- 10A. LatkovicM
- 22L. MamicM
- 38I. TavaresM
- 9S. JuricF
- 1R. McCrorieG
- 12P. BockajD
- 4L. SkaricicD
- 5S. LesjakD
- 44M. BaracD
- 3E. DurakovicD
- 30L. PosinkovicD
- 6D. PuclinM
- 21I. PosavecM
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 22J. KruiverD
- 98I. JezicM
- 26L. JelenicD
- 2M. HeisterD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 10J. JezicD
- 39D. BukvicM
- 11L. TunjicM
- 30A. LjatifiM
- 79A. LeonF
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 77S. MustaficD
- 33E. HasicD
- 49I. KolarikD
- 47D. KalemD
- 67B. BaktiM
- 9I. BaricF
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 18N. FarkasM
Form going into NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
HNL
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
NK Osijek
HNL
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
- 17 April 2026NK Osijek 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 8 February 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 3 December 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 NK OsijekCup
- 2 November 2025NK Osijek 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 17 August 2025NK Varazdin 0–0 NK OsijekHNL
Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Varazdin and NK Osijek drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Varazdin at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.84–0.59.
How the call on NK Varazdin v NK Osijek has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is NK Varazdin's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- NK Varazdin win45%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −3
- NK Osijek win28%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.