Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result
Final score: Rudes 2-2 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rudes, 29% draw, 34% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rudes at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95L. RogicG
- 44F. TarabaD
- 42M. ZebicD
- 5M. StolnikD
- 2B. UnusicD
- 24I. DjoricM
- 61C. DiabateM
- 28XaviM
- 37N. SkokoM
- 88S. El HaddadM
- 19C. SahoF
- 32S. DuvnjakG
- 4V. CeljakD
- 26I. ZuticD
- 11J. PoldrugacM
- 10V. SeitzM
- 78J. FernandesF
- 34K. LovricF
- 14T. KolegaF
- 7L. IlecicF
- 32I. CovicG
- 15J. MersinajD
- 6T. BozicD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 3A. JakirD
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 88D. BosakM
- 7M. DabroF
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 11J. MitrovicM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 30K. SenticG
- 33K. IsasegiD
- 5I. CvetkoD
- 20M. PetrovicD
- 77I. UrataD
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 23A. JonssonM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 14L. RatshukuduF
Form going into Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
HNL
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rudes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 23 July 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–2 RudesFriendlies Clubs
- 12 April 2024Rudes 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 3 February 2024NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 RudesHNL
- 31 October 2023Rudes 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoCup
- 20 October 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: Rudes and NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
GoalsAssists
- N. Skoko30
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rudes and NK Slaven Belupo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rudes at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. El Haddad 54' for Rudes, I. Nestorovski (penalty) 75' for NK Slaven Belupo, I. Nestorovski 79' for NK Slaven Belupo, M. Zebic 90' for Rudes. Sent off: Marko Stolnik (Rudes) 61'. On expected goals it finished 0.45–1.99.
How the call on Rudes v NK Slaven Belupo has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Rudes's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Rudes win37%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- NK Slaven Belupo win34%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.