Rudes
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction
Our model says: Rudes 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
The model makes it 37% Rudes, 29% draw, 34% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rudes 1.42, NK Slaven Belupo 1.28.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Rudes wins, grey are draws, red are NK Slaven Belupo wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rudes at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rudes | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 3 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 23 July 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–2 RudesFriendlies Clubs
- 12 April 2024Rudes 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 3 February 2024NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 RudesHNL
- 31 October 2023Rudes 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoCup
- 20 October 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 5 August 2023NK Slaven Belupo 3–2 RudesHNL
Leading scorers: Rudes and NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
- L. Ilečić2 goals2 assists
NK Slaven Belupo
- I. Nestorovski3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rudes carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.25 for NK Slaven Belupo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Rudes and 1.28 for NK Slaven Belupo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rudes rate 0.51 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.51 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Slaven Belupo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rudes the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Rudes against 1.28 for NK Slaven Belupo. Rudes's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.71 for NK Slaven Belupo.