Dinamo Zagreb
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
The model makes it 52% Dinamo Zagreb, 26% draw, 22% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.08, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.93.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Dinamo Zagreb wins, grey are draws, red are NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 52% here. Across 2453 settled matches, 631 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
- W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 23 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 21 March 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 20 December 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 5 October 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 17 May 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 15 March 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo7 goals3 assists
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.22 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.93 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.66 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.55 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Zagreb a 27.8% chance of the title and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1157 correct results out of 2453 settled predictions (47%), with 232 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.93 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.94 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.