Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Dinamo Zagreb, 25% draw, 21% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Zagreb at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24Dominik KotarskiG
- 13Paul Bismarck TabinasD
- 15Niko GalešićD
- 6Stjepan RadeljićD
- 22Matteo Pérez VinlöfD
- 10Luka StojkovićM
- 27Josip MišićM
- 80Lukas KačavendaM
- 21Mateo LisicaF
- 9Dion Drena BeljoF
- 17Luka IvanušecF
- 5Kirill KravtsovM
- 8Miha ZajcM
- 25Moris ValinčićD
- 11Arber HoxhaF
- 30Iker AlmenaF
- 44Ivan FilipovićG
- 3Bruno GodaD
- 26Scott McKennaD
- 36Sergi DomínguezD
- 12Josip PosavecG
- 13Fran KaračićD
- 4Athanasios TriantafyllouD
- 5Marijan ČabrajaD
- 20Kristijan ČabrajićD
- 6Feta FetaiM
- 8Ivan KatićM
- 23Marko VešovićM
- 9Leon BelcarM
- 7Dušan VukovićM
- 28Noel ĐurkovićF
- 10Matija SubotićM
- 24Mirko MarićF
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 22Mate AntunovićF
- 32Luka SavatovićG
- 21Teodor KralevskiD
- 2Jakov GurlicaM
- 14Marcel LorberM
- 25Pavle SmiljanićM
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- L1-3away to Viking26 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
All competitions we cover
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 25 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 23 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 21 March 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 20 December 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 5 October 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 17 May 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo136
- L. Stojković32
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dinamo Zagreb beat NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–2. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: N. Galesic 11' for Dinamo Zagreb, D. Beljo 26' for Dinamo Zagreb, D. Vukovic 28' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, D. Beljo 58' for Dinamo Zagreb, L. Belcar 75' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Sent off: J. Misic (Dinamo Zagreb) 69', D. Reic (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.88–1.42.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.