Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Samgurali 2-3 Dinamo Tbilisi.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Samgurali, 31% draw, 35% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Line-ups
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 15Gean RodriguesF
- 28Claudio CebolinhaF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 7N. KhorkheliF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 22G. GogiaD
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 33Isac MartinsM
- 39RyanD
- 17N. Tsetskhladze
- 20L. FloresG
- 17P. PsaltisD
- 27N. KurdicD
- 13M. PourzitidisD
- 6Leo SantosD
- 22N. NinuaM
- 23J. KankavaM
- 8WeltonM
- 10G. KharaishviliM
- 14M. Do CoutoF
- 7K. DoltmurzievF
- 37M. MakatsariaG
- 11M. VatsadzeF
- 18T. KvaratskheliaF
- 24B. OseiM
- 26G. GoguaM
- 30G. Lomidze
- 33L. HouriM
- 34M. GbomaduF
- 39K. KakashviliM
Form going into Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Gagra14 September 2026
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
- L2-7away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius30 July 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Tbilisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Samgurali | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 38 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
- 18 June 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 5–3 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 25 April 2026Samgurali 1–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 2 February 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 SamguraliFriendlies Clubs
- 22 October 2025Samgurali 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 10 August 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 29 April 2025Samgurali 0–0 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Samgurali and Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dinamo Tbilisi won 3–2 at Samgurali. The model had made a win for Dinamo Tbilisi its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Gegetchkori (penalty) 12' for Samgurali, M. Do Couto 28' for Dinamo Tbilisi, K. Doltmurziev 37' for Dinamo Tbilisi, L. Gegetchkori 42' for Samgurali, N. Ninua 74' for Dinamo Tbilisi.
How the call on Samgurali v Dinamo Tbilisi has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 26% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Samgurali's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Samgurali win34%▼ −6
- Draw31%▲ +5
- Dinamo Tbilisi win35%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.