Samgurali
vs
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Samgurali 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
The model makes it 34% Samgurali, 32% draw, 34% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Samgurali 1.05, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.04.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Samgurali wins, grey are draws, red are Dinamo Tbilisi wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Samgurali at 34% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
- W4-3away to Spaeri22 August 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
- W4-0Gagra14 September 2026
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
- L0-3Rustavi15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 32 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Samgurali and Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Samgurali carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.2 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Samgurali and 1.04 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Samgurali rate 0.41 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.41 and 1.57.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Tbilisi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Samgurali a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Tbilisi 18.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Samgurali the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Samgurali against 1.04 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Samgurali's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.57 for Dinamo Tbilisi.