Odense
vs
FC Midtjylland
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Odense 1–2 FC Midtjylland
The model makes it 29% Odense, 28% draw, 43% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Odense 1.28, FC Midtjylland 1.80.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Odense vs FC Midtjylland
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Odense wins, grey are draws, red are FC Midtjylland wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Odense vs FC Midtjylland
Odense
- W2-1away to Randers FC13 September 2026
- L0-5FC Copenhagen6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Aarhus23 August 2026
- L1-2AC Horsens16 August 2026
FC Midtjylland
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
- W1-0Randers FC23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Odense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Odense vs FC Midtjylland
- 17 July 2026FC Midtjylland 4–1 OdenseFriendlies Clubs
- 15 February 2026Odense 1–4 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 20 July 2025FC Midtjylland 3–3 OdenseSuperliga
- 23 October 2023Odense 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 24 September 2023FC Midtjylland 2–1 OdenseSuperliga
- 3 June 2023FC Midtjylland 4–2 OdenseSuperliga
Leading scorers: Odense and FC Midtjylland
Odense
No player in Superliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim3 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Odense carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.72 for FC Midtjylland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Odense and 1.80 for FC Midtjylland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Odense rate 0.68 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Midtjylland rate 0.89 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Odense a 0% chance of the title and FC Midtjylland 22.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Odense against 1.8 for FC Midtjylland. Odense's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.16 for FC Midtjylland.