30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Elbasan Arena, Elbasani
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Tirana 3-0 Aluminij.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Dinamo Tirana, 28% draw, 36% Aluminij — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Tirana at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Tirana99%Draw1%Aluminij0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Vid Koderman
Lorenco Vila
16'
⚽L. Vilaassist: H. Berisha
24'
⚽K. Qefaliaassist: U. Ismaili
43'
46'
🔁E. Taylorout: M. Bajraj
58'
Vito Težak
60'
🔁P. Petriskoout: A. Bloudek
Eridon Qardaku
61'
Isi Manellari
72'
Fabjan Perndreca
73'
Bruno Dita
74'
⚽F. Perndrecaassist: N. Aliji
77'
🔁H. Berishaout: R. Silva-Richards
78'
🔁L. Vilaout: D. Fadairo
78'
🔁E. Qardakuout: F. Ruci
78'
78'
🔁M. Bobenout: B. Osuji
78'
🔁H. Sorensenout: S. Rogina
🔁K. Qefaliaout: E. Hoxhallari
81'
🔁F. Perndrecaout: Lorran
84'
86'
🔁T. Jagicout: T. Modric

Line-ups

Dinamo Tirana 4-3-3
  • 77A. TeqjaG
  • 2U. Ismaili
  • 22B. DitaD
  • 27N. AlijiD
  • 13F. PerndrecaD
  • 20M. AyodejiM
  • 28I. ManellariM
  • 8E. QardakuM
  • 10L. VilaM
  • 21K. Qefalia
  • 29H. BerishaF
Substitutes
  • 1E. SaliG
  • 97T. Kiri
  • 5E. HoxhallariD
  • 11R. Silva-RichardsF
  • 16N. BletaM
  • 18D. MetajF
  • 24F. Farruku
  • 33D. Fadairo
  • 45B. Aniekan JamesF
Coach: Ilir Daja
Aluminij 3-5-2
  • 31F. RaduhaG
  • 4R. SchaubachD
  • 5M. BobenD
  • 32V. TezakD
  • 80H. SorensenD
  • 13M. VrbanecM
  • 14T. JagicM
  • 7E. TaylorM
  • 42V. KodermanM
  • 45B. SussoF
  • 44P. PetriskoM
Substitutes
  • 1A. MrezarG
  • 66L. TomazicG
  • 3D. Zajsek
  • 6D. SimunicD
  • 9A. BloudekF
  • 11B. OsujiM
  • 18S. RoginaM
  • 21L. DrevensekD
  • 23E. KrambergerM
Coach: Jure Arsic

Form going into Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij

Dinamo Tirana

  • D1-1away to Aluminij23 July 2026

Aluminij

  • D1-1Dinamo Tirana23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij

  • 23 July 2026Aluminij 1–1 Dinamo TiranaUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.