30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Elbasan Arena, Elbasani
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Tirana 3-0 Aluminij.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Dinamo Tirana, 28% draw, 36% Aluminij — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Aluminij 1–1 Dinamo Tirana (23 Jul) →

Dinamo Tirana went through 4–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Tirana at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Tirana99%Draw1%Aluminij0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Vid Koderman
Lorenco Vila
16'
⚽L. Vilaassist: H. Berisha
24'
⚽K. Qefaliaassist: U. Ismaili
43'
46'
🔁E. Taylorout: M. Bajraj
58'
Vito Težak
60'
🔁P. Petriskoout: A. Bloudek
Eridon Qardaku
61'
Isi Manellari
72'
Fabjan Perndreca
73'
Bruno Dita
74'
⚽F. Perndrecaassist: N. Aliji
77'
🔁H. Berishaout: R. Silva-Richards
78'
🔁L. Vilaout: D. Fadairo
78'
🔁E. Qardakuout: F. Ruci
78'
78'
🔁M. Bobenout: B. Osuji
78'
🔁H. Sorensenout: S. Rogina
🔁K. Qefaliaout: E. Hoxhallari
81'
🔁F. Perndrecaout: Lorran
84'
86'
🔁T. Jagicout: T. Modric

Line-ups

Dinamo Tirana 4-3-3
  • 77A. TeqjaG
  • 2U. Ismaili
  • 22B. DitaD
  • 27N. AlijiD
  • 13F. PerndrecaD
  • 20M. AyodejiM
  • 28I. ManellariM
  • 8E. QardakuM
  • 10L. VilaM
  • 21K. Qefalia
  • 29H. BerishaF
Substitutes
  • 1E. SaliG
  • 97T. Kiri
  • 5E. HoxhallariD
  • 11R. Silva-RichardsF
  • 16N. BletaM
  • 18D. MetajF
  • 24F. Farruku
  • 33D. Fadairo
  • 45B. Aniekan JamesF
Coach: Ilir Daja
Aluminij 3-5-2
  • 31F. RaduhaG
  • 4R. SchaubachD
  • 5M. BobenD
  • 32V. TezakD
  • 80H. SorensenD
  • 13M. VrbanecM
  • 14T. JagicM
  • 7E. TaylorM
  • 42V. KodermanM
  • 45B. SussoF
  • 44P. PetriskoM
Substitutes
  • 1A. MrezarG
  • 66L. TomazicG
  • 3D. Zajsek
  • 6D. SimunicD
  • 9A. BloudekF
  • 11B. OsujiM
  • 18S. RoginaM
  • 21L. DrevensekD
  • 23E. KrambergerM
Coach: Jure Arsic

Form going into Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij

Dinamo Tirana

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Aluminij23 July 2026

Aluminij

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Dinamo Tirana23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij

  • 23 July 2026Aluminij 1–1 Dinamo TiranaUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Dinamo Tirana beat Aluminij 3–0. The goals: L. Vila 24' for Dinamo Tirana, K. Qefalia 43' for Dinamo Tirana, F. Perndreca 77' for Dinamo Tirana.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.