23 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Stjarnan vs Ilves UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stjörnuvöllur, Gardabaer
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Stjarnan, 34% draw, 13% Ilves — fair odds of 1.89, 2.94 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Ilves v Stjarnan, 30 Jul →

Ilves went through on penalties, after 1–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Stjarnan at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

58'
🔁J. Kiloout: R. Riski
58'
🔁J. Veteliout: O. Multala
Emil Atlason
64'
🔁T. Thorissonout: B. Hauksson
66'
71'
🔁O. Petterssonout: G. Bamba
71'
🔁S. Vaisanenout: V. Kumpu
81'
Anton Popovitch
🔁B. Warenout: D. Matthiasson
83'
🔁O. Eggertssonout: A. Vilhjalmsson
83'
⚽G. Nokkvason
84'
85'
🔁M. Raleout: L. Ala-Myllymaki
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
90+1'
🔁G. Nokkvasonout: A. Hauksson
90+5'

Line-ups

Stjarnan 4-3-3
  • 12Árni Snær ÓlafssonG
  • 32Örvar Logi ÖrvarssonD
  • 6Sindri Þór IngimarssonD
  • 3Gustav KjeldsenD
  • 4Þorri Mar ÞórissonD
  • 23Benedikt WarénM
  • 18Gudmundur Baldvin NokkvasonM
  • 8Jóhann Árni GunnarssonM
  • 11Birnir Snaer IngasonM
  • 22Emil AtlasonF
  • 7Örvar EggertssonM
Substitutes
  • 14Bjarki HaukssonD
  • 10Daníel Finns MatthíassonM
  • 94Árni VilhjálmssonF
  • 29Alex Þór HaukssonM
  • 1Darri Bergmann GylfasonG
  • 183Duro Stefan BeicG
  • 19Ari LeifssonD
  • 5Guðmundur KristjánssonD
  • 24Sigurdur Gunnar JónssonD
Coach: Jokull Elisabetarson
Ilves 4-3-3
  • 12Faris KrkalićG
  • 4Oliver PetterssonD
  • 5Sauli VäisänenD
  • 16Tatu MiettunenD
  • 3Matias RaleD
  • 7Joona VeteliM
  • 30Jardell KangaM
  • 14Anton PopovitchM
  • 13Kalle WalliusM
  • 9Teemu HytönenF
  • 28Jesse KiloM
Substitutes
  • 22Oskari MultalaM
  • 10Roope RiskiF
  • 19Bamba Abdoul GoudoussD
  • 24Ville KumpuD
  • 15Lauri Ala-MyllymäkiM
  • 1Otso VirtanenG
  • 31Rasmus LeislahtiG
  • 17Stanislav BaranovM
  • 20Otto TiitinenM
Coach: Joni Lehtonen

The result against the call

Stjarnan beat Ilves 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Stjarnan at 53%. The goal: G. Nokkvason 84' for Stjarnan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.