23 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Stjarnan vs Ilves UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stjörnuvöllur, Gardabaer
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Stjarnan, 34% draw, 13% Ilves — fair odds of 1.89, 2.94 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Stjarnan at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

58'
🔁J. Kiloout: R. Riski
58'
🔁J. Veteliout: O. Multala
Emil Atlason
64'
🔁T. Thorissonout: B. Hauksson
66'
71'
🔁O. Petterssonout: G. Bamba
71'
🔁S. Vaisanenout: V. Kumpu
81'
Anton Popovitch
🔁B. Warenout: D. Matthiasson
83'
🔁O. Eggertssonout: A. Vilhjalmsson
83'
⚽G. Nokkvason
84'
85'
🔁M. Raleout: L. Ala-Myllymaki
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
90+1'
🔁G. Nokkvasonout: A. Hauksson
90+5'

Line-ups

Stjarnan 4-3-3
  • 12Árni Snær ÓlafssonG
  • 32Örvar Logi ÖrvarssonD
  • 6Sindri Þór IngimarssonD
  • 3Gustav KjeldsenD
  • 4Þorri Mar ÞórissonD
  • 23Benedikt WarénM
  • 18Gudmundur Baldvin NokkvasonM
  • 8Jóhann Árni GunnarssonM
  • 11Birnir Snaer IngasonM
  • 22Emil AtlasonF
  • 7Örvar EggertssonM
Substitutes
  • 14Bjarki HaukssonD
  • 10Daníel Finns MatthíassonM
  • 94Árni VilhjálmssonF
  • 29Alex Þór HaukssonM
  • 1Darri Bergmann GylfasonG
  • 183Duro Stefan BeicG
  • 19Ari LeifssonD
  • 5Guðmundur KristjánssonD
  • 24Sigurdur Gunnar JónssonD
Coach: Jokull Elisabetarson
Ilves 4-3-3
  • 12Faris KrkalićG
  • 4Oliver PetterssonD
  • 5Sauli VäisänenD
  • 16Tatu MiettunenD
  • 3Matias RaleD
  • 7Joona VeteliM
  • 30Jardell KangaM
  • 14Anton PopovitchM
  • 13Kalle WalliusM
  • 9Teemu HytönenF
  • 28Jesse KiloM
Substitutes
  • 22Oskari MultalaM
  • 10Roope RiskiF
  • 19Bamba Abdoul GoudoussD
  • 24Ville KumpuD
  • 15Lauri Ala-MyllymäkiM
  • 1Otso VirtanenG
  • 31Rasmus LeislahtiG
  • 17Stanislav BaranovM
  • 20Otto TiitinenM
Coach: Joni Lehtonen

Head-to-head: Stjarnan vs Ilves

  • 23 July 2026Stjarnan 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Stjarnan and Ilves

Stjarnan

No leading scorers listed yet.

Ilves

  • T. Hytönen6 goals
  • J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
  • M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.