Union Santa Fe
vs
Velez Sarsfield
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Union Santa Fe 1–0 Velez Sarsfield
The model makes it 36% Union Santa Fe, 28% draw, 36% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.34, Velez Sarsfield 1.32.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Union Santa Fe's rating is built from 64 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Velez Sarsfield's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Union Santa Fe are 11th on 14 points from 13 games; Velez Sarsfield are 5th on 24 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Union Santa Fe have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Deportivo Riestra.
- Velez Sarsfield have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Gimnasia Mendoza.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Velez Sarsfield 2–2 Union Santa Fe.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra20 October 2026
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
Velez Sarsfield
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
- D2-2Platense5 October 2026
- W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
| 5 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
- 27 April 2026Velez Sarsfield 2–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 December 2024Union Santa Fe 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 July 2023Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 August 2022Union Santa Fe 2–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 September 2021Velez Sarsfield 4–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 April 2021Velez Sarsfield 4–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona141
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.71 for Velez Sarsfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.32 for Velez Sarsfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.94 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Velez Sarsfield rate 0.88 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Velez Sarsfield, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Santa Fe a 0% chance of the title and Velez Sarsfield 3.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.32 for Velez Sarsfield. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.16 for Velez Sarsfield.
How the model reaches 36% for Union Santa Fe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Union Santa Fe to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Union Santa Fe's ratings take away 12 points and Velez Sarsfield's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Union Santa Fe's ratings29%−12
- Velez Sarsfield's ratings36%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union Santa Fe at home · Velez Sarsfield away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Union Santa Fe 31, Velez Sarsfield 30.
Union Santa Fe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Velez Sarsfield have let in 3 there.
Velez Sarsfield score most often in the 0–15 minute window (10 goals); Union Santa Fe have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.