3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Estonia vs Luxembourg UEFA Nations League prediction & result

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Referee: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Estonia, 32% draw, 37% Luxembourg — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Luxembourg at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estonia97%Draw3%Luxembourg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rasmus Peetson
5'
29'
Enes Mahmutovic
Jürgen Henn
44'
62'
🔁Aiman Dardariout: Hamza Kadamani
62'
🔁Enzo dos Santosout: Sebastien Thill
🔁Mattias Männilaanout: karel mustmaa
66'
68'
Omar Natami
🔁Kevor Palumetsout: Markus Soomets
72'
73'
🔁Vincent Thillout: Timothé Rupil
Märten Kuusk
73'
78'
Vahid Selimović
🔁Mattias Käitout: Mihkel Ainsalu
80'
Karol Mets
82'
83'
🔁Florian Bohnertout: Mathias Olesen
83'
🔁Enes Mahmutovicout: Eldin Dzogovic
84'
Leandro Barreiro
85'
Eldin Dzogovic
87'
Mathias Olesen
Markus Poom
88'

Match stats — Estonia vs Luxembourg

46%Possession54%
14Shots8
9On target2
7Corners3

Line-ups

Estonia 5-3-2
  • 12M. IgonenG
  • 6R. PeetsonD
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 2M. KuuskD
  • 18K. MetsD
  • 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 10K. PalumetsM
  • 20M. PoomM
  • 4M. KäitM
  • 14P. KristalF
  • 17M. MännilaanF
Substitutes
  • 11M. AinsaluM
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 23F. LiivakM
  • 9Karel MustmaaF
  • 7R. SaarmaM
  • 13J. SalisteD
  • 15M. SkvortsovM
  • 8M. SoometsM
  • 21A. TammF
Coach: J. Henn
Luxembourg 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. MorisG
  • 4F. BohnertD
  • 3E. MahmutovićD
  • 5V. SelimovićD
  • 13D. CarlsonD
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 15Omar NatamiM
  • 11V. ThillM
  • 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
  • 7Aiman DardariM
  • 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
Substitutes
  • 2E. DžogovićD
  • 14E. VeigaD
  • 18S. IkeneD
  • 17H. KadamaniM
  • 23T. KipsG
  • 22M. MartinsD
  • 19M. OlesenM
  • 12T. Pereira CardosoG
  • 10T. RupilM
Coach: J. Strasser

Form going into Estonia vs Luxembourg

Estonia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

Luxembourg

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Estonia413021+16
4Luxembourg410327-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Luxembourg at 37% and given a win for Estonia 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Rasmus Peetson 5' for Estonia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.