30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Hradec Králové vs Tromso UEFA Europa League prediction & result

FINEP Arena, Hradec Kralove
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Hradec Králové 3-1 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Hradec Králové, 23% draw, 20% Tromso — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hradec Králové at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hradec Králové99%Draw1%Tromso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jakub Uhrinčať
14'
25'
⚽H. Larsenassist: S. Innvaer
⚽M. van Burenassist: J. Kucera
30'
46'
🔁A. Thongla-Iad Warnerydout: I. Dahlqvist
⚽T. Sloncikassist: M. van Buren
48'
Tom Slončík
50'
⚽O. Mihalikassist: D. Horak
53'
🔁M. van Burenout: A. Vlkanova
62'
62'
🔁Ieltsin Camoesout: T. Nyhammer
66'
David Edvardsson
🔁O. Mihalikout: M. Regza
69'
73'
🔁I. Vadebuout: M. Tonnessen
73'
🔁J. Hjerto-Dahlout: L. O. Larsen
73'
🔁H. Larsenout: D. Braut
🔁V. Daridaout: D. Ludvicek
81'
🔁T. Sloncikout: A. Umar
81'
🔁J. Kuceraout: D. Trubac
81'
Abdullahi Umar
85'

Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Tromso

42%Possession58%
3On target3
3Corners6

Line-ups

Hradec Králové 3-4-2-1
  • 12A. ZadrazilG
  • 7J. UhrincatD
  • 5F. CihakD
  • 25F. CechD
  • 28J. KuceraM
  • 16V. DaridaM
  • 11S. DancakM
  • 26D. HorakM
  • 10M. van BurenF
  • 19T. SloncikF
  • 17O. MihalikF
Substitutes
  • 1P. VizekG
  • 20M. VagnerG
  • 2D. LudvicekD
  • 4T. PetrasekD
  • 6E. NetoM
  • 14J. HodekF
  • 18M. RegzaF
  • 22S. PonikelskyM
  • 24A. UmarF
Coach: David Horejs
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
  • 4V. SkjaervikD
  • 21T. GuddalD
  • 30I. VadebuD
  • 37S. InnvaerM
  • 6J. Hjerto-DahlM
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 20Ieltsin Camoes
  • 22H. LarsenM
Substitutes
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 32A. SarrG
  • 3M. TonnessenD
  • 7L. O. LarsenF
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 9D. BrautF
  • 10T. NyhammerM
  • 16B. MyrvoldM
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
Coach: Jorgen Vik

Form going into Hradec Králové vs Tromso

Hradec Králové

  • W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
  • W1-0away to Tromso23 July 2026

Tromso

  • L0-1Hradec Králové23 July 2026
  • W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Hradec Králové and Tromso in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
6Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga842287+114
4TromsoEliteserien2010553727+1035

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Czech Liga · Eliteserien

Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Tromso

  • 30 July 2026Hradec Králové 3–1 TromsoUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026Tromso 0–1 Hradec KrálovéUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Tromso

Hradec Králové

  • T. Slončík3 goals

Tromso

  • H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.