Hradec Králové vs Tromso UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Hradec Králové 3-1 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Hradec Králové, 23% draw, 20% Tromso — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Tromso 0–1 Hradec Králové (23 Jul) →
Hradec Králové went through 4–1 on aggregate.
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hradec Králové at 57% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Tromso
Line-ups
- 12A. ZadrazilG
- 7J. UhrincatD
- 5F. CihakD
- 25F. CechD
- 28J. KuceraM
- 16V. DaridaM
- 11S. DancakM
- 26D. HorakM
- 10M. van BurenF
- 19T. SloncikF
- 17O. MihalikF
- 1P. VizekG
- 20M. VagnerG
- 2D. LudvicekD
- 4T. PetrasekD
- 6E. NetoM
- 14J. HodekF
- 18M. RegzaF
- 22S. PonikelskyM
- 24A. UmarF
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
- 4V. SkjaervikD
- 21T. GuddalD
- 30I. VadebuD
- 37S. InnvaerM
- 6J. Hjerto-DahlM
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 20Ieltsin Camoes
- 22H. LarsenM
- 12O. LauvliG
- 32A. SarrG
- 3M. TonnessenD
- 7L. O. LarsenF
- 8J. GrundtM
- 9D. BrautF
- 10T. NyhammerM
- 16B. MyrvoldM
- 17I. DahlqvistM
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Tromso
Hradec Králové
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
- W1-0away to Tromso23 July 2026
Tromso
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Hradec Králové23 July 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Hradec Králové and Tromso in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 15 |
| 5 | Tromso | Eliteserien | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 40 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Czech Liga · Eliteserien
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Tromso
- 23 July 2026Tromso 0–1 Hradec KrálovéUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Tromso
Hradec Králové
GoalsAssists
- M. van Buren21
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hradec Králové beat Tromso 3–1. The model had made a win for Hradec Králové its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: H. Larsen 25' for Tromso, M. van Buren 30' for Hradec Králové, T. Sloncik 48' for Hradec Králové, O. Mihalik 53' for Hradec Králové.