30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Park Hall, Oswestry
Full time1 – 0

Final score: The New Saints 1-0 Flora Tallinn.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% The New Saints, 24% draw, 31% Flora Tallinn — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Flora Tallinn 1–0 The New Saints (23 Jul) →

Flora Tallinn went through on penalties, after 1–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts The New Saints at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

The New Saints5%Draw91%Flora Tallinn4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jordan Williams
16'
20'
🔁S. Tovstikout: I. Antonov
41'
Ilja Antonov
Rhys Hughes
65'
🔁R. Holdenout: R. Brobbel
66'
🔁L. Smithout: I. Jefferies
66'
66'
🔁S. Alamaaout: R. Alliku
80'
🔁D. Kuraksinout: R. Veering
80'
🔁V. Kreidaout: T. Teevali
🔁E. Farrellout: B. Clark
81'
🔁J. Williamsout: B. Wilson
81'
Daniel Williams
86'
🔁R. Hughesout: J. Lock
87'
⚽B. Wilsonassist: J. Bodenham
90'
92'
Sergei Zenjov
Daniel Redmond
97'
Dynel Simeu
102'
🔁D. Redmondout: Z. Nolan
106'
106'
🔁R. Sappinenout: T. Usta
110'
🔁S. Zenjovout: M. Kalimullin
Danny Davies
120+1'

Line-ups

The New Saints 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. ShepperdG
  • 22D. DaviesD
  • 16D. SimeuD
  • 6J. BodenhamD
  • 10D. RedmondM
  • 15E. FarrellM
  • 14D. WilliamsD
  • 18R. HoldenM
  • 21L. SmithM
  • 20R. HughesM
  • 17J. WilliamsF
Substitutes
  • 30J. EdwardsG
  • 4D. CornessM
  • 8R. BrobbelM
  • 12H. Godsmark-FordD
  • 19B. ClarkM
  • 23Z. NolanD
  • 31B. Woollam
  • 34J. LockM
  • 37I. JefferiesM
Coach: Craig Harrison
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2
  • 33E. GrunvaldG
  • 7D. KuraksinM
  • 3A. KolloD
  • 23M. KolobovD
  • 26S. TovstikD
  • 20S. ZenjovM
  • 14T. VarjundM
  • 32V. KreidaM
  • 29S. AlamaaM
  • 11R. SappinenF
  • 18R. ValdmetsM
Substitutes
  • 22A. TatrikG
  • 99K. KivilaG
  • 6R. VeeringD
  • 8T. TeevaliM
  • 9R. AllikuM
  • 17T. UstaF
  • 24O. PihelaD
  • 51M. KukkonenM
  • 53R. SammulD
Coach: Konstantin Vasiliev

Form going into The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn

The New Saints

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Flora Tallinn23 July 2026

Flora Tallinn

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0The New Saints23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn

  • 23 July 2026Flora Tallinn 1–0 The New SaintsUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

The New Saints beat Flora Tallinn 1–0. The model had made a win for The New Saints its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: B. Wilson 90' for The New Saints.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.