30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Park Hall, Oswestry
Full time1 – 0

Final score: The New Saints 1-0 Flora Tallinn.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% The New Saints, 24% draw, 31% Flora Tallinn — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts The New Saints at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

The New Saints5%Draw91%Flora Tallinn4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jordan Williams
16'
20'
🔁S. Tovstikout: I. Antonov
41'
Ilja Antonov
Rhys Hughes
65'
🔁R. Holdenout: R. Brobbel
66'
🔁L. Smithout: I. Jefferies
66'
66'
🔁S. Alamaaout: R. Alliku
80'
🔁D. Kuraksinout: R. Veering
80'
🔁V. Kreidaout: T. Teevali
🔁E. Farrellout: B. Clark
81'
🔁J. Williamsout: B. Wilson
81'
Daniel Williams
86'
🔁R. Hughesout: J. Lock
87'
⚽B. Wilsonassist: J. Bodenham
90'
92'
Sergei Zenjov
Daniel Redmond
97'
Dynel Simeu
102'
🔁D. Redmondout: Z. Nolan
106'
106'
🔁R. Sappinenout: T. Usta
110'
🔁S. Zenjovout: M. Kalimullin
Danny Davies
120+1'

Line-ups

The New Saints 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. ShepperdG
  • 22D. DaviesD
  • 16D. SimeuD
  • 6J. BodenhamD
  • 10D. RedmondM
  • 15E. FarrellM
  • 14D. WilliamsD
  • 18R. HoldenM
  • 21L. SmithM
  • 20R. HughesM
  • 17J. WilliamsF
Substitutes
  • 30J. EdwardsG
  • 4D. CornessM
  • 8R. BrobbelM
  • 12H. Godsmark-FordD
  • 19B. ClarkM
  • 23Z. NolanD
  • 31B. Woollam
  • 34J. LockM
  • 37I. JefferiesM
Coach: Craig Harrison
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2
  • 33E. GrunvaldG
  • 7D. KuraksinM
  • 3A. KolloD
  • 23M. KolobovD
  • 26S. TovstikD
  • 20S. ZenjovM
  • 14T. VarjundM
  • 32V. KreidaM
  • 29S. AlamaaM
  • 11R. SappinenF
  • 18R. ValdmetsM
Substitutes
  • 22A. TatrikG
  • 99K. KivilaG
  • 6R. VeeringD
  • 8T. TeevaliM
  • 9R. AllikuM
  • 17T. UstaF
  • 24O. PihelaD
  • 51M. KukkonenM
  • 53R. SammulD
Coach: Konstantin Vasiliev

Form going into The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn

The New Saints

  • L0-1away to Flora Tallinn23 July 2026

Flora Tallinn

  • W1-0The New Saints23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn

  • 30 July 2026The New Saints 0–0 Flora TallinnUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Flora Tallinn 1–0 The New SaintsUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.