30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League prediction & result

MCH Arena, Herning
Full time0 – 2

Final score: FC Midtjylland 0-2 Beşiktaş.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% FC Midtjylland, 23% draw, 47% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Beşiktaş at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Midtjylland0%Draw1%Beşiktaş99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. B. Sorensen
35'
M. Erlic
44'
M. Erlic
53'
M. Erlic
53'
56'
V. Cerny
🔁Franculinoout: Lee Han-Beom
57'
🔁P. Billingout: K. Watjen
57'
🔁V. Byskovout: J. Emefile
57'
🔁D. Castilloout: S. Iheanacho
69'
69'
🔁V. Cernyout: M. Rashica
70'
⚽M. Rashicaassist: J. Olaitan
R. Kristensen
75'
76'
⚽O. Kokcu (pen)
🔁D. Osorioout: S. Johannesen
77'
79'
🔁J. Olaitanout: A. Hadziahmetovic
81'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
81'
V. Italiano
85'
🔁M. Murilloout: T. Bulut
85'
🔁I. Fakiliout: Y. Ozcan
85'
🔁Oh Hyeon-Gyuout: M. Hekimoglu
86'
Y. Ozcan

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland 4-3-3
  • 1E. OlafssonG
  • 5R. KristensenD
  • 6M. ErlicD
  • 22M. B. SorensenD
  • 21D. CastilloM
  • 8P. BillingM
  • 19P. BravoM
  • 20V. ByskovM
  • 11D. OsorioM
  • 10Cho Gue-SungF
  • 7FranculinoF
Substitutes
  • 25N. BakkerG
  • 31L. SelinG
  • 14E. ChilufyaF
  • 3Lee Han-BeomD
  • 29K. WatjenM
  • 27S. JohannesenM
  • 18S. IheanachoM
  • 17M. UhreF
  • 13A. GabrielD
Coach: Mike Tullberg
Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. NubelG
  • 62M. MurilloD
  • 35T. DjaloD
  • 53E. TopcuD
  • 33R. YilmazD
  • 6S. OzcanM
  • 18V. CernyM
  • 15J. OlaitanM
  • 10O. KokcuM
  • 29I. FakiliM
  • 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
Substitutes
  • 80D. AlemdarG
  • 7M. RashicaM
  • 12E. AgbadouD
  • 22T. BulutD
  • 58Y. Ozcan
  • 70A. S. BircanF
  • 65C. GurselD
  • 5A. HadziahmetovicM
  • 8K. Kayra YilmazM
Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş

FC Midtjylland

  • W3-2away to Sonderjyske26 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Beşiktaş23 July 2026

Beşiktaş

  • W1-0FC Midtjylland23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

FC Midtjylland and Beşiktaş in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC MidtjyllandSuperliga8530168+818
2BeşiktaşSüper Lig5401124+812

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · Süper Lig

Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş

  • 30 July 2026FC Midtjylland 0–0 BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026Beşiktaş 1–0 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Beşiktaş

FC Midtjylland

  • F. Etim3 goals2 assists
  • S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assists

Beşiktaş

  • D. Vlahović4 goals
  • V. Černý2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.