30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League prediction & result

MCH Arena, Herning
Full time0 – 2

Final score: FC Midtjylland 0-2 Beşiktaş.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% FC Midtjylland, 23% draw, 47% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Beşiktaş 1–0 FC Midtjylland (23 Jul) →

Beşiktaş went through 3–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Beşiktaş at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Midtjylland0%Draw1%Beşiktaş99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. B. Sorensen
35'
M. Erlic
44'
M. Erlic
53'
M. Erlic
53'
56'
V. Cerny
🔁Franculinoout: Lee Han-Beom
57'
🔁P. Billingout: K. Watjen
57'
🔁V. Byskovout: J. Emefile
57'
🔁D. Castilloout: S. Iheanacho
69'
69'
🔁V. Cernyout: M. Rashica
70'
⚽M. Rashicaassist: J. Olaitan
R. Kristensen
75'
76'
⚽O. Kokcu (pen)
🔁D. Osorioout: S. Johannesen
77'
79'
🔁J. Olaitanout: A. Hadziahmetovic
81'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu
81'
V. Italiano
85'
🔁M. Murilloout: T. Bulut
85'
🔁I. Fakiliout: Y. Ozcan
85'
🔁Oh Hyeon-Gyuout: M. Hekimoglu
86'
Y. Ozcan

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland 4-3-3
  • 1E. OlafssonG
  • 5R. KristensenD
  • 6M. ErlicD
  • 22M. B. SorensenD
  • 21D. CastilloM
  • 8P. BillingM
  • 19P. BravoM
  • 20V. ByskovM
  • 11D. OsorioM
  • 10Cho Gue-SungF
  • 7FranculinoF
Substitutes
  • 25N. BakkerG
  • 31L. SelinG
  • 14E. ChilufyaF
  • 3Lee Han-BeomD
  • 29K. WatjenM
  • 27S. JohannesenM
  • 18S. IheanachoM
  • 17M. UhreF
  • 13A. GabrielD
Coach: Mike Tullberg
Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. NubelG
  • 62M. MurilloD
  • 35T. DjaloD
  • 53E. TopcuD
  • 33R. YilmazD
  • 6S. OzcanM
  • 18V. CernyM
  • 15J. OlaitanM
  • 10O. KokcuM
  • 29I. FakiliM
  • 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
Substitutes
  • 80D. AlemdarG
  • 7M. RashicaM
  • 12E. AgbadouD
  • 22T. BulutD
  • 58Y. Ozcan
  • 70A. S. BircanF
  • 65C. GurselD
  • 5A. HadziahmetovicM
  • 8K. Kayra YilmazM
Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş

FC Midtjylland

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Sonderjyske26 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Beşiktaş23 July 2026

Beşiktaş

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0FC Midtjylland23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş

  • 23 July 2026Beşiktaş 1–0 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Beşiktaş

FC Midtjylland

No leading scorers listed yet.

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • Oh Hyeon-Gyu21
  • A. Murillo20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beşiktaş won 2–0 at FC Midtjylland. The model had made a win for Beşiktaş its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Rashica 70' for Beşiktaş, O. Kokcu (penalty) 76' for Beşiktaş. Sent off: M. Erlic (FC Midtjylland) 53'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.