HNK Hajduk Split
vs
Istra 1961
The model makes it 64% HNK Hajduk Split, 16% draw, 20% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 1.56, 6.25 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (6%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 3.26, Istra 1961 1.93.
Both teams to score: 82%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Hajduk Split
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
Istra 1961
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
- 7 April 2026Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 25 January 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 October 2025Istra 1961 0–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 15 February 2025Istra 1961 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers
HNK Hajduk Split
- R. Pukštas1 goals
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.33 for Istra 1961. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Hajduk Split L; Istra 1961 L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.26 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.93 for Istra 1961. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.89 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Istra 1961 rate 0.67 and 1.94.
That points to 89% for over two and a half goals and 82% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%), 2-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Istra 1961, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.26 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.93 for Istra 1961. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.89/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.94 for Istra 1961.