HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Istra 1961.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% HNK Hajduk Split, 16% draw, 20% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 1.56, 6.25 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
HNK Hajduk Split at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33T. SilicG
- 38L. HodakD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 8N. SigurM
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 7A. SanyangF
- 21R. PukstasM
- 23M. SoticekF
- 11M. SegoF
- 44D. StipicaG
- 99D. FesyukG
- 20A. del MoralM
- 26A. GuramM
- 14R. RaciD
- 10M. LivajaF
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 9D. de AlmeidaM
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 13N. SepicD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 80I. SaranicM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 18S. BanguraF
- 24F. TarabaD
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 27D. CelijaF
- 97A. KadusicD
- 7V. RozicF
- 8A. MauricM
- 23S. UkichM
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split
All competitions we cover
- W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Pafos30 July 2026
- W2-0Pafos23 July 2026
Istra 1961
All competitions we cover
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
- 7 April 2026Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 25 January 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 October 2025Istra 1961 0–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego51
- A. Sanyang32
- Carlos Martín31
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961 drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 64% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: R. Pukstas 15' for HNK Hajduk Split, E. Frederiksen 42' for Istra 1961, M. Livaja 84' for HNK Hajduk Split, D. Ahmeti 90' for Istra 1961. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.94.