NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
HNK Gorica
The model makes it 42% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 26% draw, 32% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.52, HNK Gorica 1.31.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026
HNK Gorica
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
- 17 April 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 3 November 2025HNK Gorica 4–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 16 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK GoricaHNL
- 24 May 2025HNK Gorica 0–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 28 March 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković1 goals
HNK Gorica
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.31 for HNK Gorica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb W; HNK Gorica L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.31 for HNK Gorica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.51 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Gorica rate 0.53 and 1.58.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.31 for HNK Gorica. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.58 for HNK Gorica.