NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 1-4 NK Varazdin.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% NK Slaven Belupo, 27% draw, 43% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NK Varazdin at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30K. SenticG
- 18F. KruseljD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 5I. Cvetko
- 77I. UrataD
- 23A. JonssonM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 11J. MitrovicM
- 22A. Adeshina
- 8L. BanovecM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 32I. CovicG
- 27A. GrgicF
- 88D. BosakM
- 20M. PetrovicD
- 13A. BilobrkD
- 7M. DabroF
- 29L. LoncarF
- 28P. MaricF
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 33J. SilicG
- 23F. MaglicaD
- 13M. MladenovskiD
- 4L. SkaricicD
- 20G. SikosekD
- 28I. CanjugaM
- 24M. MarinaM
- 10A. LatkovicM
- 22L. MamicM
- 38I. TavaresM
- 17I. MamutF
- 1O. ZelenikaG
- 12P. BockajD
- 6D. PuclinM
- 21I. PosavecM
- 7M. VukF
- 8T. DuvnjakM
- 5S. LesjakD
- 18PaizinhoF
- 9S. JuricF
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
NK Varazdin
All competitions we cover
- W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
- L0-2away to FK Jablonec30 July 2026
- W3-2FK Jablonec23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin
- 12 April 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 31 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 25 October 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 10 August 2025NK Slaven Belupo 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 22 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 NK VarazdinHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić60
- I. Canjuga33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Varazdin won 4–1 at NK Slaven Belupo. The model had made a win for NK Varazdin its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Canjuga 26' for NK Varazdin, L. Mamic 28' for NK Varazdin, A. Latkovic 44' for NK Varazdin, I. Nestorovski 71' for NK Slaven Belupo, I. Canjuga 78' for NK Varazdin. On expected goals it finished 0.95–2.49.