Rudes
vs
NK Osijek
The model makes it 12% Rudes, 18% draw, 70% NK Osijek — fair odds of 8.33, 5.56 and 1.43. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Rudes 0.85, NK Osijek 2.31.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rudes
- L1-2away to HNK Rijeka2 August 2026
NK Osijek
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rudes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 2 | NK Osijek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Osijek
- 5 April 2024Rudes 2–3 NK OsijekHNL
- 27 January 2024NK Osijek 2–0 RudesHNL
- 7 October 2023NK Osijek 3–0 RudesHNL
- 30 July 2023Rudes 3–4 NK OsijekHNL
- 26 October 2021Rudes 0–2 NK OsijekCup
- 12 April 2019NK Osijek 2–0 RudesHNL
Leading scorers
Rudes
- S. Vukić1 goals
NK Osijek
- I. Dolček1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Rudes carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.6 for NK Osijek. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rudes L; NK Osijek W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Rudes and 2.31 for NK Osijek. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rudes rate 0.41 in attack and 2.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Osijek rate 0.65 and 1.10.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Rudes against 2.31 for NK Osijek. Rudes's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.1 for NK Osijek.