Neman
vs
Baranovichi
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Neman 1–0 Baranovichi
The model makes it 49% Neman, 28% draw, 23% Baranovichi — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Neman 1.79, Baranovichi 0.88.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Neman are 6th on 37 points from 22 games; Baranovichi are 11th on 25 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- Neman are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Isloch Minsk R..
- Baranovichi have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to FC Gomel.
- Last 3 meetings: Neman 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Baranovichi 1–2 Neman.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Neman vs Baranovichi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Neman at 49% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Neman vs Baranovichi
Neman
- W2-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.19 September 2026
- W1-0Torpedo Zhodino12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Belshina6 September 2026
- W1-0Slavia Mozyr29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Naftan22 August 2026
Baranovichi
- L0-2FC Gomel20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk12 September 2026
- W2-1FC Dnepr Mogilev6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk29 August 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Brest23 August 2026
What these results say
- Neman went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Neman scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Neman won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baranovichi had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Neman | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 37 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Neman vs Baranovichi
- 24 May 2026Baranovichi 1–2 NemanPremier League
- 7 March 2026Neman 0–0 BaranovichiFriendlies Clubs
- 28 June 2023Baranovichi 0–2 NemanCoppa
The two sides
Neman carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.05 for Baranovichi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Neman and 0.88 for Baranovichi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neman rate 0.49 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baranovichi rate 0.45 and 2.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neman the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Neman against 0.88 for Baranovichi. Neman's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.25 for Baranovichi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Neman at home · Baranovichi away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Neman 22, Baranovichi 23.
Neman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Baranovichi have let in 11 there.
Baranovichi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Neman have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Neman
- at ML Vitebsk17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Dinamo Brest24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Dinamo Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC Dnepr Mogilev7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
Baranovichi
- vs FC Vitebsk17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at FC Minsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Naftan31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- at Slavia Mozyr7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Belshina21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.