HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: HJK Helsinki 1-1 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% HJK Helsinki, 21% draw, 27% Motherwell — fair odds of 1.92, 4.76 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Motherwell v HJK Helsinki, 13 Aug →
Motherwell went through 3–1 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
HJK Helsinki at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell
Line-ups
- 44M. MarkovicG
- 28M. YlitolvaD
- 6V. TikkanenD
- 3T. CissokhoD
- 14L. MontanoD
- 22L. MollerM
- 8P. MentuM
- 29S. HaaralaF
- 4A. RingM
- 18T. MeroM
- 9M. BorchersF
- 1J. OstG
- 12M. HaapanenG
- 5A. NalloD
- 7A. CicaleM
- 10L. LingmanM
- 13K. SimojokiD
- 15J. KallinenM
- 17M. KirilovM
- 20T. PukkiF
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowM
- 5M. MoormannD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 45E. LongeloD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 77W. VogtF
- 11A. LowryM
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 31J. McConnellG
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 22J. KoutroumbisD
- 23E. WilsonD
- 24L. RossF
- 25O. WhyteM
- 27M. BoothM
- 29Z. McAllisterM
Form going into HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell
HJK Helsinki
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Coleraine FC30 July 2026
- W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026
Motherwell
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
- W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
- W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HJK Helsinki and Motherwell in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | Finnish Premier League | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 66 | 39 | +27 | 59 |
| 9 | Motherwell | Premiership | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Finnish Premier League · Premiership
Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and Motherwell
HJK Helsinki
GoalsAssists
- M. Borchers173
- T. Pukki46
- S. Haarala42
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HJK Helsinki and Motherwell drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for HJK Helsinki at 52% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: T. Maswanhise (penalty) 64' for Motherwell, T. Pukki 71' for HJK Helsinki.