FC Lugano
vs
NSI Runavik
The model makes it 84% FC Lugano, 10% draw, 6% NSI Runavik — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 3.69, NSI Runavik 1.04.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%, under 2.5: 15%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Lugano
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
NSI Runavik
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FC Lugano
- Y. Cimignani2 goals
NSI Runavik
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Lugano carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.19 for NSI Runavik. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Lugano W-W; NSI Runavik D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.69 goals for FC Lugano and 1.04 for NSI Runavik. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Lugano rate 1.05 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NSI Runavik rate 0.50 and 1.86.
That points to 85% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 3-0 (7%), 4-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.69 expected goals for FC Lugano against 1.04 for NSI Runavik. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.86 for NSI Runavik.