6 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Lugano 2-0 NSI Runavik.

Before kick-off the model made it 84% FC Lugano, 10% draw, 6% NSI Runavik — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: NSI Runavik v FC Lugano, 13 Aug →

FC Lugano went through 4–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Lugano at 84%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano99%Draw1%NSI Runavik0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Pihlstromassist: Y. Cimignani
7'
🔁A. Kendouciout: D. Moncada
61'
🔁D. Dos Santosout: A. Grgic
61'
🔁Y. Cimignaniout: A. Papadopoulos
72'
77'
🔁M. Przybylskiout: T. Hestad
⚽K. Behrensassist: M. Zanotti
79'
🔁E. Pihlstromout: B. D. Castro Espinosa
82'
85'
🔁M. Lindhout: M. Danielsen

Match stats — FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

69%Possession31%
31Shots5
9On target1
15Corners3

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-4-1-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 46M. ZanottiD
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 27D. Dos SantosM
  • 24E. PihlstromM
  • 25U. BislimiF
  • 11R. SteffenF
  • 91K. BehrensF
Substitutes
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 39C. NdiayeG
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 23G. AjdinM
  • 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
  • 30D. MoncadaF
  • 33C. RaffaM
  • 8A. GrgicM
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti
NSI Runavik 5-4-1
  • 13T. AmosG
  • 5A. F. ElissonD
  • 12F. DrinicD
  • 4D. ObbekjaerD
  • 3V. DavidsenD
  • 17J. BenjaminsenD
  • 11M. LindhM
  • 6B. NolsoeM
  • 29E. W. JoensenM
  • 33M. PrzybylskiM
  • 2S. Skytte
Substitutes
  • 1K. JoensenG
  • 30D. DanielsenG
  • 10K. OlsenF
  • 9T. HestadM
  • 22J. TrondargjogvD
  • 28M. DanielsenF
Coach: Sigurdur Eyjolfsson

Form going into FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

FC Lugano

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
  • W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
  • W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
  • W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026

NSI Runavik

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Koper30 July 2026
  • L0-2Koper23 July 2026

What these results say

  • FC Lugano won every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Lugano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Lugano conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and NSI Runavik

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • K. Behrens71
  • Y. Cimignani34

NSI Runavik

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano beat NSI Runavik 2–0. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 84%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: E. Pihlstrom 7' for FC Lugano, K. Behrens 79' for FC Lugano.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.