Hibernian
vs
Shkendija
The model makes it 21% Hibernian, 21% draw, 58% Shkendija — fair odds of 4.76, 4.76 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.28, Shkendija 2.20.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hibernian
- L1-2Motherwell2 August 2026
Shkendija
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.47 for Shkendija. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hibernian L; Shkendija W-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Hibernian and 2.20 for Shkendija. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.45 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shkendija rate 0.71 and 1.51.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shkendija the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hibernian against 2.2 for Shkendija. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.51 for Shkendija.