Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
GKS Katowice
The model makes it 24% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 25% draw, 51% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.15, GKS Katowice 1.75.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hapoel Tel Aviv
No earlier matches on record this season.
GKS Katowice
- W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Hapoel Tel Aviv
No league goals recorded yet.
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin1 goals1 assists
- B. Nowak1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hapoel Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.58 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hapoel Tel Aviv W-D; GKS Katowice L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.75 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.53 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 0.65 and 1.15.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv against 1.75 for GKS Katowice. Hapoel Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.15 for GKS Katowice.