IFK Goteborg
vs
Gent
The model makes it 29% IFK Goteborg, 23% draw, 48% Gent — fair odds of 3.45, 4.35 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.49, Gent 1.96.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IFK Goteborg
- W2-0Degerfors IF2 August 2026
- L1-4away to Sirius26 July 2026
- W2-1IF Brommapojkarna17 July 2026
- L0-4away to Malmo FF12 July 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm5 July 2026
Gent
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Gent has not started the league season yet. Full tables
The two sides
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.74 for Gent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): IFK Goteborg L-L-W-L-W; Gent D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.96 for Gent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.73 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gent rate 0.87 and 1.08.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.96 for Gent. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.08 for Gent.