FK Jablonec
vs
Rīgas FS
The model makes it 68% FK Jablonec, 19% draw, 13% Rīgas FS — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 2.32, Rīgas FS 0.94.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Jablonec
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Rīgas FS
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.28 for Rīgas FS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Jablonec W-W; Rīgas FS W-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for FK Jablonec and 0.94 for Rīgas FS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.74 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rīgas FS rate 0.53 and 1.66.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 0.94 for Rīgas FS. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.66 for Rīgas FS.