Nacional
vs
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Nacional 0–1 Academico Viseu
The model makes it 30% Nacional, 27% draw, 43% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Nacional 1.19, Academico Viseu 1.57.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Academico Viseu: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Nacional's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Academico Viseu's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 689 matches.
Key facts
- Nacional are 16th on 4 points from 8 games; Academico Viseu are 7th on 14 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Nacional have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Rio Ave.
- Academico Viseu are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Estoril.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 March 2024, ended Nacional 1–1 Academico Viseu.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nacional vs Academico Viseu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Academico Viseu at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nacional vs Academico Viseu
Nacional
Primeira Liga
- L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
- L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026
- L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga
- W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
- W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
What these results say
- Nacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional had three goals or more.
- Academico Viseu won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Academico Viseu
- 9 March 2024Nacional 1–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 29 October 2023Academico Viseu 1–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
- 28 May 2023Nacional 3–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 21 January 2023Academico Viseu 1–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
- 7 May 2022Nacional 1–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 29 December 2021Academico Viseu 1–4 NacionalSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Academico Viseu
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Academico Viseu
GoalsAssists
- André Clóvis40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nacional carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.81 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Nacional and 1.57 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional rate 0.78 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.94 and 1.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nacional a 0% chance of the title and Academico Viseu 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academico Viseu the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nacional against 1.57 for Academico Viseu. Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.01 for Academico Viseu.
How the model reaches 43% for Academico Viseu to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Academico Viseu to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Nacional's ratings add 13 points and Academico Viseu's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Nacional's ratings45%+13
- Academico Viseu's ratings43%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nacional at home · Academico Viseu away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Nacional 8, Academico Viseu 8.
Nacional score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Academico Viseu have let in 1 there.
Academico Viseu score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Nacional have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nacional
- at Maritimo27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 35%
- vs Benfica6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 12%
- at Casa Pia13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 38%
Academico Viseu
- vs Alverca28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- at Famalicao6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- vs Arouca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.