Helmond Sport
vs
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Helmond Sport 0–1 FC Volendam
The model makes it 31% Helmond Sport, 28% draw, 41% FC Volendam — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.21, FC Volendam 1.49.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to FC Volendam: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Helmond Sport's rating is built from 49 Eerste Divisie matches and FC Volendam's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Helmond Sport are 19th on 9 points from 11 games; FC Volendam are 8th on 16 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Helmond Sport have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to NAC Breda.
- FC Volendam have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Waalwijk.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2025, ended FC Volendam 3–1 Helmond Sport.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Volendam at 41% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC OSS9 October 2026
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
What these results say
- Helmond Sport did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | FC Volendam | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam
- 28 February 2025FC Volendam 3–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024Helmond Sport 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 25 February 2022FC Volendam 4–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 3 December 2021Helmond Sport 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 9 April 2021FC Volendam 5–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 18 September 2020Helmond Sport 0–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Helmond Sport and FC Volendam
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman102
- R. Niemeijer52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Helmond Sport carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.4 for FC Volendam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.49 for FC Volendam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Helmond Sport rate 0.45 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Volendam rate 0.67 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Helmond Sport a 0% chance of the title and FC Volendam 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.49 for FC Volendam. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.65 for FC Volendam.
How the model reaches 41% for FC Volendam to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Volendam to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Helmond Sport's ratings add 36 points and FC Volendam's ratings take away 24 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Helmond Sport's ratings65%+36
- FC Volendam's ratings41%−24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Helmond Sport at home · FC Volendam away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Helmond Sport 11, FC Volendam 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Helmond Sport
- at Almere City FC14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 15%
- vs Dordrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at Emmen28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
FC Volendam
- at Roda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Jong Ajax20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 59%
- vs FC Eindhoven29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.