NAC Breda
vs
Heracles
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: NAC Breda 1–0 Heracles
The model makes it 48% NAC Breda, 27% draw, 25% Heracles — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.60, Heracles 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NAC Breda are 5th on 17 points from 10 games; Heracles are top on 25 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to MVV.
- Heracles are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Waalwijk.
- Last 6 meetings: Heracles 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Heracles 0–1 NAC Breda.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NAC Breda vs Heracles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NAC Breda at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NAC Breda vs Heracles
NAC Breda
- W1-0MVV9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
- W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026
- L2-3Jong Utrecht11 September 2026
Heracles
- W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
- W3-2Jong AZ11 September 2026
What these results say
- NAC Breda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had three goals or more.
- Heracles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 12 | +19 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NAC Breda
Chance to finish in the top four · 53% today
Heracles
Chance to finish in the top four · 73% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs Heracles
- 14 February 2026Heracles 0–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 29 October 2025NAC Breda 1–4 HeraclesKNVB Beker
- 20 September 2025NAC Breda 2–1 HeraclesEredivisie
- 31 January 2025NAC Breda 1–1 HeraclesEredivisie
- 2 November 2024Heracles 2–0 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 12 May 2023NAC Breda 0–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: NAC Breda and Heracles
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym50
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli111
- T. van Gilst72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NAC Breda carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.43 for Heracles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for NAC Breda and 0.99 for Heracles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NAC Breda rate 0.67 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heracles rate 0.63 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heracles, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NAC Breda a 10.4% chance of the title and Heracles 26.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for NAC Breda against 0.99 for Heracles. NAC Breda's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.47 for Heracles.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NAC Breda at home · Heracles away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: NAC Breda 10, Heracles 10.
NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Heracles have let in 5 there.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); NAC Breda have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NAC Breda
- at Jong PSV U212 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- at Dordrecht6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
- vs Emmen14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 57%
- at Almere City FC20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
Heracles
- vs FC OSS2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
- vs Roda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at Dordrecht14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- vs Jong PSV U2120 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.