De Graafschap
vs
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: De Graafschap 2–1 Waalwijk
The model makes it 38% De Graafschap, 27% draw, 35% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.50, Waalwijk 1.43.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: De Graafschap and Waalwijk are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- De Graafschap are 16th on 11 points from 10 games; Waalwijk are 9th on 14 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- De Graafschap are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jong Utrecht.
- Waalwijk are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Heracles.
- Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended De Graafschap 2–4 Waalwijk.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts De Graafschap at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
De Graafschap
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
- L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026
Waalwijk
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
What these results say
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for De Graafschap had three goals or more.
- Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
De Graafschap
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
Waalwijk
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
- 23 January 2026De Graafschap 2–4 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 9 November 2025Waalwijk 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 30 March 2018De Graafschap 1–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 2 September 2017Waalwijk 0–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 7 April 2017De Graafschap 4–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 25 November 2016Waalwijk 2–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: De Graafschap and Waalwijk
De Graafschap
GoalsAssists
- J. Kania50
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
De Graafschap carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.39 for Waalwijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 1.43 for Waalwijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
De Graafschap rate 0.57 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waalwijk rate 0.64 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Waalwijk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives De Graafschap a 0.1% chance of the title and Waalwijk 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives De Graafschap the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for De Graafschap against 1.43 for Waalwijk. De Graafschap's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.62 for Waalwijk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
De Graafschap at home · Waalwijk away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: De Graafschap 10, Waalwijk 10.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); De Graafschap have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
De Graafschap
- at Roda27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 25%
- at FC Volendam30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 18%
- at Vitesse8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs FC OSS14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- vs MVV20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
Waalwijk
- vs Almere City FC30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at FC OSS6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- vs Den Bosch14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
- at FC Eindhoven21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.