Almere City FC
vs
Roda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Almere City FC 1–0 Roda
The model makes it 50% Almere City FC, 30% draw, 20% Roda — fair odds of 2.00, 3.33 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Almere City FC 1.40, Roda 0.71.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Almere City FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Almere City FC are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; Roda are 6th on 16 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Almere City FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Roda have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong PSV U21.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Almere City FC 1–2 Roda.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Almere City FC vs Roda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almere City FC at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Almere City FC vs Roda
Almere City FC
- W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
- W1-0Heracles18 September 2026
- W4-0away to MVV11 September 2026
Roda
- D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026
- L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
- W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026
What these results say
- Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almere City FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 22 |
| 6 | Roda | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Almere City FC
Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 30% today
Roda
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs Roda
- 30 January 2026Almere City FC 1–2 RodaEerste Divisie
- 20 October 2025Roda 2–0 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 24 February 2023Roda 0–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 30 September 2022Almere City FC 2–1 RodaEerste Divisie
- 14 January 2022Almere City FC 0–4 RodaEerste Divisie
- 27 August 2021Roda 3–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Almere City FC and Roda
Almere City FC
GoalsAssists
- F. Druijf63
- E. Poku43
Roda
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.37 for Roda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Almere City FC and 0.71 for Roda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Almere City FC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Roda rate 0.44 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 30% chance of the title and Roda 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Almere City FC against 0.71 for Roda. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.25 for Roda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Almere City FC at home · Roda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Almere City FC 10, Roda 10.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Roda have let in 2 there.
Roda score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Almere City FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Almere City FC
- at Telstar27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 25%
- at Waalwijk30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- at Jong AZ6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- vs Helmond Sport14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 62%
- vs NAC Breda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
Roda
- vs De Graafschap27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 45%
- vs Jong AZ30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Heracles6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs FC Volendam14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at FC OSS20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.