Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Super League prediction & result
Final score: Henan Jianye 0-0 Chengdu Better City.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Henan Jianye, 29% draw, 37% Chengdu Better City — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chengdu Better City at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Shi ChenglongG
- 4Shinar YeljanD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 22Huang RuifengD
- 6Wang ShangyuanM
- 21He ChaoM
- 29Zheng DalunM
- 10Bruno NazarioM
- 8Pedro MaranhaoM
- 9GustavoF
- 18Wang GuomingG
- 17Wang JinshuaiG
- 5Liu JiahuiD
- 27Liu YixinD
- 3O. GerbigD
- 15Haliq AblahanM
- 25Yang YilinM
- 13A. AbudulamM
- 30Fan XulinM
- 32Liu DianzuoG
- 4He YiranD
- 18Han PengfeiD
- 22Y. LiD
- 2H. HuD
- 16Yang Ming-YangM
- 5Matheus JussaM
- 11Wellington SilvaM
- 20Wang ZimingM
- 7Wei ShihaoM
- 10RomuloF
- 1Jian TaoG
- 15Ran WeifengG
- 28E. SorokinD
- 19Y. DongD
- 3A. C. JojoD
- 17Wang DongshengD
- 25Muzepper MurahmetjanM
- 23Liao LishengM
- 39Gan ChaoM
Form going into Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City
Henan Jianye
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
Chengdu Better City
- W2-1Shenyang Urban29 August 2026
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 28 |
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | +20 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo135
- Bruno Nazário96
Chengdu Better City
GoalsAssists
- Felipe173
- Wellington Silva96
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.