Henan Jianye
vs
Chengdu Better City
Super League prediction
The model makes it 13% Henan Jianye, 15% draw, 72% Chengdu Better City — fair odds of 7.69, 6.67 and 1.39. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Henan Jianye 1.29, Chengdu Better City 3.02.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Henan Jianye
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
- D0-0Qingdao Youth Island9 August 2026
- D1-1Dalian Zhixing31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Shandong Luneng26 July 2026
- W5-1Qingdao Jonoon17 July 2026
Chengdu Better City
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
- D1-1Wuhan Three Towns1 August 2026
- D2-2Beijing Guoan26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 23 |
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | +20 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Henan Jianye
No league goals recorded yet.
Chengdu Better City
- Felipe14 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Henan Jianye carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.56 for Chengdu Better City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Henan Jianye W-W-D-D-L; Chengdu Better City D-D-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Henan Jianye and 3.02 for Chengdu Better City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Henan Jianye rate 0.36 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chengdu Better City rate 0.96 and 1.89.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 0-3 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Henan Jianye a 0% chance of the title and Chengdu Better City 99.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chengdu Better City the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Henan Jianye against 3.02 for Chengdu Better City. Henan Jianye's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.89 for Chengdu Better City.