Servette FC
vs
FC St. Gallen
Super League prediction
The model makes it 52% Servette FC, 21% draw, 27% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 1.92, 4.76 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Servette FC 2.26, FC St. Gallen 1.59.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Servette FC
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich1 August 2026
- L0-1FC Basel 189325 July 2026
FC St. Gallen
- D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
- W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | FC St. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Servette FC
No league goals recorded yet.
FC St. Gallen
- E. Owusu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Servette FC carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.58 for FC St. Gallen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Servette FC L-L-W; FC St. Gallen W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for Servette FC and 1.59 for FC St. Gallen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Servette FC rate 0.77 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Gallen rate 0.88 and 1.55.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC St. Gallen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Servette FC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Servette FC against 1.59 for FC St. Gallen. Servette FC's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.55 for FC St. Gallen.