Chongqing Tongliang Long
vs
Shanghai Shenhua
Super League prediction
The model makes it 33% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 35% draw, 32% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 3.03, 2.86 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.87, Shanghai Shenhua 0.84.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Wuhan Three Towns25 July 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown18 July 2026
Shanghai Shenhua
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
- W4-1Henan Jianye15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Qingdao Jonoon8 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shenyang Urban2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No league goals recorded yet.
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão14 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chongqing Tongliang Long carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.25 for Shanghai Shenhua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Chongqing Tongliang Long D-L-L-L-D; Shanghai Shenhua L-W-W-L-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 0.84 for Shanghai Shenhua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.30 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.44 and 1.53.
That points to 24% for over two and a half goals and 34% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (19%), 1-0 (15%), 0-1 (15%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 0.84 for Shanghai Shenhua. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack/defence rating is 0.3/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.53 for Shanghai Shenhua.