Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Super League prediction & result
Final score: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 30% draw, 34% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chongqing Tongliang Long at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua
Line-ups
- 1Yao HaoyangG
- 24Liu MingshiD
- 32M. NgadeuD
- 33LucaoD
- 3Zhang YingkaiD
- 10I. AmadouM
- 8Li ZhenquanM
- 9G. CimpanuM
- 7Xiang YuwangM
- 18Liang WeipengM
- 11L. DimataF
- 31Wu ZitongG
- 6Jin PengxiangD
- 26He XiaoqiangD
- 38Ruan QilongD
- 37Wei SuoweiD
- 4Yue RuijieD
- 16Zhang ZhixiongM
- 27Wu YongqiangM
- 21Liu JialeM
- 1Xue QinghaoG
- 13W. ManafaD
- 6Li SongyiD
- 5Zhu ChenjieD
- 16Yang ZexiangD
- 19L. AsueM
- 33Wang HaijianM
- 17Gao TianyiM
- 15Wu XiM
- 30Xie PengfeiM
- 9Rafael RataoF
- 24Ma ZhenG
- 39D. SunG
- 26Yang ShuaiD
- 25Zhu YueD
- 2Wang ShilongD
- 3Jin ShunkaiD
- 38Wu QipengD
- 21Xu HaoyangM
- 45Han JiawenM
Form going into Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye29 August 2026
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
Shanghai Shenhua
- L2-3Shandong Luneng28 August 2026
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 32 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 59 | 47 | +12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shanghai Shenhua
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Shanghai Shenhua
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Ratão181
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.