Yunnan Yukun
vs
Shenyang Urban
Super League prediction
The model makes it 61% Yunnan Yukun, 20% draw, 19% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.33, Shenyang Urban 1.26.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Yunnan Yukun
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
- L2-3away to Tianjin Teda1 August 2026
- W4-3Sichuan Jiuniu26 July 2026
Shenyang Urban
- L1-2Sichuan Jiuniu15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dalian Zhixing8 August 2026
- W3-1Shanghai Shenhua2 August 2026
- L0-1Qingdao Youth Island25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Beijing Guoan17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 35 |
| 12 | Shenyang Urban | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Yunnan Yukun
- O. Maritu18 goals6 assists
- Cléber9 goals5 assists
Shenyang Urban
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Yunnan Yukun carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.21 for Shenyang Urban. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Yunnan Yukun W-L-W-W-D; Shenyang Urban D-L-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.26 for Shenyang Urban. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Yunnan Yukun rate 0.64 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shenyang Urban rate 0.54 and 1.93.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Yunnan Yukun the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun against 1.26 for Shenyang Urban. Yunnan Yukun's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.93 for Shenyang Urban.