Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban Super League prediction & result
Final score: Yunnan Yukun 5-0 Shenyang Urban.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Yunnan Yukun, 24% draw, 22% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yunnan Yukun at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Wang ZhifengG
- 19Huang ZichangD
- 18Yi TengD
- 33A. BurcaD
- 3Tsui Wang-KitD
- 10A. Ionita IIM
- 34Caio ViniciusM
- 22Duan LiuyuM
- 39Abdusalam BunyaminF
- 9CleberF
- 11O. Taty MarituF
- 1Bao YaxiongG
- 24Yu JianxianG
- 5Shi KeD
- 27Han ZilongM
- 2Hu RuibaoD
- 26Zhang ChenliangD
- 16Zhang XiangshuoD
- 6Zhao YuhaoM
- 8Xu XinM
- 29Zhang YanG
- 34H. ZhangD
- 26Yuan MinchengD
- 15FelipeD
- 5D. MawlanniyazM
- 33Tian YinongM
- 18Li TixiangM
- 35Li HaoranM
- 7A. KouameF
- 9G. MbenzaF
- 47JeffinhoF
- 13J. XieG
- 28Xu DongD
- 3Pan XimingD
- 27Gao JiarunD
- 36Tian DeaoM
- 30Pang ShenghanD
- 8Yan DinghaoM
- 22G. LiuF
- 17Tian YudaF
Form going into Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban
Yunnan Yukun
- L0-6away to Hangzhou Greentown29 August 2026
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
Shenyang Urban
- L1-2away to Chengdu Better City29 August 2026
- D4-4Henan Jianye23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu209
- Cléber135
Shenyang Urban
GoalsAssists
- Jeffinho102
- G. Mbenza91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.