Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown Super League prediction & result
Final score: Tianjin Teda 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Tianjin Teda, 25% draw, 24% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tianjin Teda at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Yan BingliangG
- 29Ba DunD
- 11Xie WeijunD
- 18A. CordobaD
- 6Wang XianjunD
- 31Sun Ming-HimD
- 30Wang QiumingM
- 10C. SalvadorM
- 14Huang JiahuiM
- 9A. QuilesF
- 8XadasF
- 21Qi YuxiG
- 3Wang ZhenghaoD
- 38S. LiM
- 20Ji ShengpanF
- 17Wu XinghanD
- 28Guo HaoM
- 24Chen ZhexuanD
- 22Li YongjiaM
- 16Liu ShuaiM
- 33Zhao BoG
- 25Xu JunchiD
- 5Liu HaofanD
- 36L. PossignoloD
- 26Sun GuowenD
- 22Cheng JinM
- 4Park Jin-SeobM
- 7Tao QianglongM
- 10M. TolicM
- 28A. MitritaM
- 11Y. WangF
- 32Huo ShenpingG
- 3Wang YangD
- 17Wang ShiqinD
- 38A. ZhangD
- 8A. N'DoumbouM
- 29Zhang JiaqiM
- 14Wu WeiM
- 6Bao ShengxinM
- 20F. NingF
Form going into Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown
Tianjin Teda
- D1-1Qingdao Youth Island29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wuhan Three Towns22 August 2026
Hangzhou Greentown
- W6-0Yunnan Yukun29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 28 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown
Tianjin Teda
GoalsAssists
- Alberto Quiles114
Hangzhou Greentown
GoalsAssists
- A. Mitriță1112
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.