San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 1-0 Gimnasia Mendoza.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 42% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Orlando GillG
- 32Ezequiel HerreraD
- 42Franco LorenzonD
- 35Alejo CordobaD
- 6Mathias de RitisD
- 14Agustin LadstatterM
- 24Nicolás TripichioM
- 62Gonzalo AlassiaM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 29Rodrigo AuzmendiF
- 9Alexis CuelloF
- 28Nahuel BarriosM
- 13Juan RattalinoM
- 17Gregorio RodriguezF
- 16Guzmán CorujoD
- 20Facundo AltamiranoG
- 3Teo Rodríguez PaganoD
- 54Nicolás BlancoD
- 15Mauricio CardilloM
- 5Ignacio PerruzziM
- 23Cesar RigamontiG
- 22Juan FrancoD
- 2Diego MondinoD
- 4Ezequiel MuñozD
- 3Matias RecaldeD
- 30Esteban FernándezM
- 21Fermin AntoniniM
- 26Facundo LencioniM
- 17Ignacio SabatiniF
- 9Agustín ModicaF
- 19Julian CeballosF
- 42Lautaro CarreraM
- 15Ulises SánchezM
- 7Luciano CingolaniF
- 35Valentino SimoniF
- 27Blas ArmoaF
- 31Lautaro PetruchiG
- 16Germán GuiffreyD
- 41Gerónimo PatrittiM
- 32Luciano ParedesD
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 18 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 27 January 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica140
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Lorenzo beat Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia Mendoza at 42% and given a win for San Lorenzo 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Rodrigo Auzmendi 86' for San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.93.