San Lorenzo
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
Final score: San Lorenzo 1-0 Gimnasia Mendoza.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 30% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.61, Gimnasia Mendoza 1.30.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Match stats: San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo had 51% possession, 13 shots (5 on target), 4 corners, 1.04 expected goals; Gimnasia Mendoza had 49% possession, 13 shots (3 on target), 6 corners, 0.93 expected goals.
Goals: Rodrigo Auzmendi 86' for San Lorenzo.
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 27 January 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Lorenzo the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 1.3 for Gimnasia Mendoza. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.49 for Gimnasia Mendoza.