San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 1-0 Gimnasia Mendoza.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 42% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Orlando GillG
- 32Ezequiel HerreraD
- 42Franco LorenzonD
- 35Alejo CordobaD
- 6Mathias de RitisD
- 14Agustin LadstatterM
- 24Nicolás TripichioM
- 62Gonzalo AlassiaM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 29Rodrigo AuzmendiF
- 9Alexis CuelloF
- 28Nahuel BarriosM
- 13Juan RattalinoM
- 17Gregorio RodriguezF
- 16Guzmán CorujoD
- 20Facundo AltamiranoG
- 3Teo Rodríguez PaganoD
- 54Nicolás BlancoD
- 15Mauricio CardilloM
- 5Ignacio PerruzziM
- 23Cesar RigamontiG
- 22Juan FrancoD
- 2Diego MondinoD
- 4Ezequiel MuñozD
- 3Matias RecaldeD
- 30Esteban FernándezM
- 21Fermin AntoniniM
- 26Facundo LencioniM
- 17Ignacio SabatiniF
- 9Agustín ModicaF
- 19Julian CeballosF
- 42Lautaro CarreraM
- 15Ulises SánchezM
- 7Luciano CingolaniF
- 35Valentino SimoniF
- 27Blas ArmoaF
- 31Lautaro PetruchiG
- 16Germán GuiffreyD
- 41Gerónimo PatrittiM
- 32Luciano ParedesD
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo
- L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 28 July 2026San Lorenzo 1–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 January 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Gimnasia Mendoza
San Lorenzo
- R. Auzmendi6 goals
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica12 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.