Dinamo Zagreb
vs
FC Thun
Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Dinamo Zagreb, 22% draw, 18% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.98, FC Thun 0.98.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun
Dinamo Zagreb had 76% possession, 29 shots (6 on target), 14 corners; FC Thun had 24% possession, 8 shots (3 on target), 1 corners.
Goals: B. Labeau 4' for FC Thun, M. Burki 22' for FC Thun, D. Beljo 74' for Dinamo Zagreb, L. Kacavenda 78' for Dinamo Zagreb, M. Valincic 112' for Dinamo Zagreb.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun
- 28 July 2026Dinamo Zagreb 0–1 FC ThunUEFA Champions League
- 21 July 2026FC Thun 1–1 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Champions League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.98 for FC Thun. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.69 for FC Thun.