28 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Dinamo Zagreb, 29% draw, 25% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽B. Labeauassist: N. Zoukit
Miha Zajc
21'
22'
⚽M. Burkiassist: F. Fehr
Bruno Goda
26'
🔁B. Godaout: M. Perez Vinlof
46'
46'
🔁F. Dursunout: M. Gutbub
🔁G. Vidovicout: L. Kacavenda
58'
🔁M. Lisicaout: F. Topic
58'
58'
🔁N. Zoukitout: N. Maier
🔁M. Orsicout: A. Hoxha
59'
Josip Mišić
62'
Fran Topić
64'
66'
•Marco Bürki
67'
Marco Bürki
68'
🔁B. Labeauout: N. Burgy
⚽D. Beljoassist: M. Valincic
74'
77'
🔁N. Reichmuthout: L. Dahler
⚽L. Kacavendaassist: F. Topic
78'
🔁S. Dominguezout: N. Galesic
91'
106'
🔁F. Fehrout: C. Ibayi
⚽M. Valincicassist: J. Misic
112'
116'
Christopher Ibayi
116'
🔁J. Rothout: L. Stewart
Arber Hoxha
120'
🔁J. Misicout: S. Radeljic
120+2'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun

76%Possession24%
29Shots8
6On target3
14Corners1

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 21M. LisicaM
  • 10G. VidovicM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 99M. OrsicM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 1D. ZagoracG
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 11A. HoxhaF
  • 41S. SuntaM
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 23M. BurkiD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 9F. DursunF
  • 96B. LabeauF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 5N. BurgyD
  • 18C. IbayiF
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 11L. StewartF
  • 17A. BalarubanD
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D1-1away to FC Thun21 July 2026

FC Thun

  • W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
  • D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Dinamo Zagreb and FC Thun in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dinamo ZagrebHNL6411147+713
10FC ThunSuper League72141118-77

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Super League

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun

  • 28 July 2026Dinamo Zagreb 3–2 FC ThunUEFA Champions League
  • 21 July 2026FC Thun 1–1 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and FC Thun

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D. Beljo7 goals3 assists

FC Thun

  • B. Labeau3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.