28 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Riga vs Vardar Skopje UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Skonto stadions, Riga
Full time5 – 2

Final score: Riga 5-2 Vardar Skopje.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Riga, 25% draw, 30% Vardar Skopje — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Vardar Skopje 2–3 Riga (22 Jul) →

Riga went through 8–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Riga at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽D. Babunskiassist: I. Puleio
19'
Filip Najdovski
22'
🔁Miguel Piresout: D. Velkovski
🔁M. Diopout: Caio Ferreira
46'
Baba Musah
56'
🔁O. Galoout: Reginaldo Ramires
65'
66'
⚽A. Omeragic
69'
🔁A. Omeragicout: G. Zakaric
🔁A. Salazarout: A. Taiwo
75'
84'
🔁D. Castanedaout: F. Duranski
⚽A. Taiwoassist: Reginaldo Ramires
87'
🔁R. Jurkovskisout: M. Tonisevs
91'
91'
🔁M. Manevskiout: F. Cvetkovski
Raki Aouani
92'
⚽R. Aouani
92'
🔁M. Badamosiout: A. Cernomordijs
99'
99'
🔁D. Babunskiout: D. Todorovski
99'
🔁I. Puleioout: D. Danev
105+6'
Filip Duranski
⚽Iago Siqueiraassist: R. Aouani
105'
⚽Reginaldo Ramires
109'
🔁R. Aouaniout: K. Wassom
112'
⚽Caio Ferreiraassist: M. Tonisevs
117'

Line-ups

Riga 5-4-1
  • 91F. OrolsG
  • 13R. JurkovskisD
  • 33Paulo EduardoD
  • 21B. MusahD
  • 17A. SalazarD
  • 22M. Diop
  • 8Iago SiqueiraM
  • 40A. AnkrahM
  • 4O. GaloM
  • 7R. AouaniM
  • 19M. BadamosiF
Substitutes
  • 31A. PapadoudisG
  • 44M. KazainisG
  • 3AbnerD
  • 5K. WassomD
  • 10Reginaldo RamiresF
  • 11B. Pena
  • 23M. TonisevsD
  • 25A. TaiwoF
  • 34A. CernomordijsD
Coach: Adrian Gula
Vardar Skopje 4-2-3-1
  • 95D. TaleskiG
  • 21G. JankulovD
  • 5F. NajdovskiD
  • 4M. MaticD
  • 3M. ManevskiD
  • 6D. BabunskiM
  • 32D. CastanedaM
  • 34I. PuleioM
  • 71Miguel PiresM
  • 7G. RodriguesF
  • 9A. OmeragicF
Substitutes
  • 1D. DikovskiG
  • 10G. ZakaricF
  • 14D. VelkovskiD
  • 17E. SpahiuF
  • 18N. MishkovskiD
  • 22D. TodorovskiM
  • 23F. DuranskiM
  • 27F. CvetkovskiD
  • 31I. MarkovskiF
Coach: Cristian Fabbiani

Form going into Riga vs Vardar Skopje

Riga

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Vardar Skopje22 July 2026

Vardar Skopje

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Riga22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Riga vs Vardar Skopje

  • 22 July 2026Vardar Skopje 2–3 RigaUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Riga beat Vardar Skopje 5–2. The model had made a win for Riga its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Babunski 17' for Vardar Skopje, A. Omeragic 66' for Vardar Skopje, A. Taiwo 87' for Riga, R. Aouani 92' for Riga, Iago Siqueira 105' for Riga, Reginaldo Ramires 109' for Riga, Caio Ferreira 117' for Riga. Sent off: Filip Najdovski (Vardar Skopje) 19'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.