Riga
vs
Vardar Skopje
Final score: Riga 5-2 Vardar Skopje.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Riga, 21% draw, 24% Vardar Skopje — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Riga 2.20, Vardar Skopje 1.41.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Riga vs Vardar Skopje
Goals: D. Babunski 17' for Vardar Skopje, A. Omeragic 66' for Vardar Skopje, A. Taiwo 87' for Riga, R. Aouani 92' for Riga, Iago Siqueira 105' for Riga, Reginaldo Ramires 109' for Riga, Caio Ferreira 117' for Riga.
Head-to-head: Riga vs Vardar Skopje
- 28 July 2026Riga 0–1 Vardar SkopjeUEFA Europa Conference League
- 22 July 2026Vardar Skopje 2–3 RigaUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Riga the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Riga against 1.41 for Vardar Skopje. Riga's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.94 for Vardar Skopje.