28 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Riga vs Vardar Skopje UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Skonto stadions, Riga
Full time5 – 2

Final score: Riga 5-2 Vardar Skopje.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Riga, 25% draw, 30% Vardar Skopje — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Riga at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽D. Babunskiassist: I. Puleio
19'
Filip Najdovski
22'
🔁Miguel Piresout: D. Velkovski
🔁M. Diopout: Caio Ferreira
46'
Baba Musah
56'
🔁O. Galoout: Reginaldo Ramires
65'
66'
⚽A. Omeragic
69'
🔁A. Omeragicout: G. Zakaric
🔁A. Salazarout: A. Taiwo
75'
84'
🔁D. Castanedaout: F. Duranski
⚽A. Taiwoassist: Reginaldo Ramires
87'
🔁R. Jurkovskisout: M. Tonisevs
91'
91'
🔁M. Manevskiout: F. Cvetkovski
Raki Aouani
92'
⚽R. Aouani
92'
🔁M. Badamosiout: A. Cernomordijs
99'
99'
🔁D. Babunskiout: D. Todorovski
99'
🔁I. Puleioout: D. Danev
105+6'
Filip Duranski
⚽Iago Siqueiraassist: R. Aouani
105'
⚽Reginaldo Ramires
109'
🔁R. Aouaniout: K. Wassom
112'
⚽Caio Ferreiraassist: M. Tonisevs
117'

Line-ups

Riga 5-4-1
  • 91F. OrolsG
  • 13R. JurkovskisD
  • 33Paulo EduardoD
  • 21B. MusahD
  • 17A. SalazarD
  • 22M. Diop
  • 8Iago SiqueiraM
  • 40A. AnkrahM
  • 4O. GaloM
  • 7R. AouaniM
  • 19M. BadamosiF
Substitutes
  • 31A. PapadoudisG
  • 44M. KazainisG
  • 3AbnerD
  • 5K. WassomD
  • 10Reginaldo RamiresF
  • 11B. Pena
  • 23M. TonisevsD
  • 25A. TaiwoF
  • 34A. CernomordijsD
Coach: Adrian Gula
Vardar Skopje 4-2-3-1
  • 95D. TaleskiG
  • 21G. JankulovD
  • 5F. NajdovskiD
  • 4M. MaticD
  • 3M. ManevskiD
  • 6D. BabunskiM
  • 32D. CastanedaM
  • 34I. PuleioM
  • 71Miguel PiresM
  • 7G. RodriguesF
  • 9A. OmeragicF
Substitutes
  • 1D. DikovskiG
  • 10G. ZakaricF
  • 14D. VelkovskiD
  • 17E. SpahiuF
  • 18N. MishkovskiD
  • 22D. TodorovskiM
  • 23F. DuranskiM
  • 27F. CvetkovskiD
  • 31I. MarkovskiF
Coach: Cristian Fabbiani

Form going into Riga vs Vardar Skopje

Riga

  • W3-2away to Vardar Skopje22 July 2026

Vardar Skopje

  • L2-3Riga22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Riga vs Vardar Skopje

  • 28 July 2026Riga 5–2 Vardar SkopjeUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 22 July 2026Vardar Skopje 2–3 RigaUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.