Dundee United
vs
Hibernian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Dundee United 2–1 Hibernian
The model makes it 37% Dundee United, 28% draw, 35% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dundee United 1.53, Hibernian 1.47.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Dundee United and Hibernian are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dundee United vs Hibernian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundee United at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dundee United vs Hibernian
Dundee United
- W3-0away to St Mirren19 September 2026
- D1-1Falkirk5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
- L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
Hibernian
- D1-1Aberdeen19 September 2026
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Hibernian
- 4 February 2026Hibernian 3–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 20 December 2025Dundee United 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 13 September 2025Hibernian 3–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 3 May 2025Hibernian 3–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 26 February 2025Dundee United 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 3 November 2024Hibernian 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee United and Hibernian
Dundee United
- J. Randall2 goals2 assists
Hibernian
- M. Boyle3 goals
- C. Wright2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dundee United carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.39 for Hibernian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Dundee United and 1.47 for Hibernian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundee United rate 0.59 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hibernian rate 0.62 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundee United a 0.4% chance of the title and Hibernian 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee United the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dundee United against 1.47 for Hibernian. Dundee United's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.55 for Hibernian.