10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Dundee United vs Hibernian Premiership prediction & result

Tannadice Park, Dundee
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dundee United 1-0 Hibernian.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Dundee United, 27% draw, 35% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dundee United at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundee United97%Draw3%Hibernian0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Miguel Changa Chaiwa
⚽Daniel Bennieassist: Lyall Cameron
35'
Michael Forbes
40'
54'
🔁Ante Sutoout: Nathan Lowe
54'
🔁Thibault Klidjéout: Martin Boyle
54'
🔁Owen Eldingout: Rabbi Matondo
Zidane Iqbal
57'
🔁Daniel Bennieout: Zachary Sapsford
67'
🔁Joshua James Rawlinsout: Dario Naamo
71'
🔁Idjessi Metsokoout: Lachlan Rose
71'
🔁Lyall Cameronout: Neil Farrugia
77'
🔁Jesse Randallout: abdoulaye yoro
77'
77'
🔁Miguel Changa Chaiwaout: Jacob Devaney
78'
🔁Jack Iredaleout: Nicky Cadden
Dylan Tait
80'
•Neil Farrugia
83'
84'
Jacob Devaney
abdoulaye yoro
90+3'
90+3'
Martin Boyle

Match stats — Dundee United vs Hibernian

45%Possession55%
17Shots13
8On target4
8Corners3
1.75xG0.82

Goals against chances

Dundee United1 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Hibernian0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 14Zidane IqbalM
  • 16L. CameronM
  • 10D. TaitM
  • 21J. RandallF
  • 93I. MetsokoF
  • 77D. BennieF
Substitutes
  • 30J. AmissahG
  • 8Panutche CamaráM
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
  • 6R. GrahamD
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 22D. NaamoD
  • 15L. RoseF
  • 9Z. SapsfordM
  • 26Abdoulaye YoroM
Coach: J. Goodwin
Hibernian 5-4-1
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 25F. PasslackD
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 5M. IvezićD
  • 22A. ŠutoD
  • 15J. IredaleD
  • 7O. EldingM
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 18T. KlidjeM
  • 23C. WrightF
Substitutes
  • 47A. AbdulaiM
  • 10M. BoyleF
  • 19N. CaddenM
  • 24J. DevaneyM
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 9N. LoweF
  • 39R. MatondoM
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 35F. OwensG
Coach: M. Reedijk

Form going into Dundee United vs Hibernian

Dundee United

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to St Mirren19 September 2026
  • D1-1Falkirk5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
  • L0-2Dundee22 August 2026

Hibernian

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Aberdeen19 September 2026
  • L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
  • L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
  • L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Dundee United124531717017
10Hibernian123271517-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Hibernian

  • 4 February 2026Hibernian 3–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 20 December 2025Dundee United 1–1 HibernianPremiership
  • 13 September 2025Hibernian 3–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 3 May 2025Hibernian 3–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 26 February 2025Dundee United 1–3 HibernianPremiership

Leading scorers: Dundee United and Hibernian

Dundee United

GoalsAssists

  • J. Randall33

Hibernian

GoalsAssists

  • C. Wright31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dundee United beat Hibernian 1–0. The model had made a win for Dundee United its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Daniel Bennie 35' for Dundee United. Sent off: Jacob Devaney (Hibernian) 84'. On expected goals it finished 1.75–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dundee United these chances to finish in the bottom three: 32.6% after a win, 39.4% after a draw, 46.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 32.6%.

For Hibernian the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.6% going in: 15.2% after a win, 22.0% after a draw, 26.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.