Arbroath
vs
Morton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Arbroath 2–0 Morton
The model makes it 65% Arbroath, 21% draw, 14% Morton — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Arbroath 2.75, Morton 0.71.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arbroath are 6th on 11 points from 8 games; Morton are bottom on 1 point from 8 games — Championship.
- Arbroath have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Queen's Park.
- Morton have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inverness CT.
- Last 6 meetings: Morton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Morton 1–2 Arbroath.
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arbroath vs Morton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arbroath at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arbroath vs Morton
Arbroath
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Raith Rovers12 September 2026
- D1-1Dunfermline5 September 2026
- W1-0Livingston29 August 2026
Morton
- L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
- L1-4Livingston11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Queen's Park5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ayr Utd29 August 2026
What these results say
- Arbroath conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Morton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Morton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Morton
- 22 August 2026Morton 1–2 ArbroathChampionship
- 28 March 2026Morton 2–1 ArbroathChampionship
- 23 January 2026Arbroath 1–1 MortonChampionship
- 8 November 2025Morton 1–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 20 September 2025Arbroath 1–1 MortonChampionship
- 20 April 2024Arbroath 1–2 MortonChampionship
A clear gap in the ratings
Arbroath carry a model rating of 6.27 against 5.75 for Morton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.75 goals for Arbroath and 0.71 for Morton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arbroath rate 0.53 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Morton rate 0.35 and 3.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arbroath a 5.6% chance of the title and Morton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arbroath the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Arbroath against 0.71 for Morton. Arbroath's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/3.19 for Morton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arbroath at home · Morton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Arbroath 8, Morton 8.
Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Morton have let in 2 there.
Morton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Arbroath have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arbroath
- at Inverness CT17 Oct · Championshipwin 38%
- at Livingston24 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Raith Rovers31 Oct · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Ayr Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 57%
Morton
- vs Queen's Park17 Oct · Championshipwin 39%
- vs Ayr Utd24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- at Partick31 Oct · Championshipwin 13%
- vs Stenhousemuir7 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.