Austria Vienna
vs
Beitar Jerusalem
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 43% Austria Vienna, 29% draw, 28% Beitar Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.34, Beitar Jerusalem 1.01.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austria Vienna
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
Beitar Jerusalem
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Austria Vienna carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.28 for Beitar Jerusalem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Austria Vienna L; Beitar Jerusalem W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.01 for Beitar Jerusalem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Vienna rate 0.47 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beitar Jerusalem rate 0.47 and 1.51.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austria Vienna the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 1.01 for Beitar Jerusalem. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.51 for Beitar Jerusalem.