Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–1 Maccabi Haifa
The model makes it 41% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 27% draw, 32% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.61, Maccabi Haifa 1.34.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hapoel Tel Aviv are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; Maccabi Haifa are 2nd on 15 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ironi Tiberias.
- Maccabi Haifa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Maccabi Petah Tikva.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Maccabi Haifa 4–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W1-0Ironi Tiberias17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026
- W3-0Hapoel Petah Tikva18 September 2026
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
Maccabi Haifa
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Hapoel Jerusalem12 October 2026
- W3-2Ironi Tiberias19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa won every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Haifa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Haifa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today
Maccabi Haifa
Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
- 19 May 2026Maccabi Haifa 4–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 29 April 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 4–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 6 April 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 2 December 2025Maccabi Haifa 2–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 17 March 2024Maccabi Haifa 0–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 31 December 2023Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- E. Boateng32
- D. Owusu30
Maccabi Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Novaković41
- Bruninho34
- Pedro Brazão22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.61 for Maccabi Haifa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.34 for Maccabi Haifa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.70 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Haifa rate 0.89 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Maccabi Haifa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hapoel Tel Aviv a 6% chance of the title and Maccabi Haifa 8.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv against 1.34 for Maccabi Haifa. Hapoel Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.45 for Maccabi Haifa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Tel Aviv at home · Maccabi Haifa away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Tel Aviv 6, Maccabi Haifa 6.
Hapoel Tel Aviv score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Maccabi Haifa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 58%
- vs Maccabi Netanya1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 53%
- at Bnei Sakhnin5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 53%
Maccabi Haifa
- vs Maccabi Netanya7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 56%
- at Bnei Sakhnin28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 56%
- vs Beitar Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
- at Hapoel Haifa5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.