Beitar Jerusalem
vs
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Beitar Jerusalem 1–2 Maccabi Tel Aviv
The model makes it 31% Beitar Jerusalem, 26% draw, 43% Maccabi Tel Aviv — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 1.62, Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.16.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Beitar Jerusalem are 5th on 9 points from 5 games; Maccabi Tel Aviv are top on 15 points from 5 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Beitar Jerusalem are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Hapoel Haifa.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Maccabi Netanya.
- Last 6 meetings: Beitar Jerusalem 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–2 Beitar Jerusalem.
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Beitar Jerusalem
- W2-1Hapoel Haifa19 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Petah Tikva15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bnei Sakhnin7 September 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv3 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Netanya29 August 2026
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W2-1away to Maccabi Netanya19 September 2026
- W4-1Hapoel Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
- W5-2away to Hapoel Jerusalem23 August 2026
What these results say
- Beitar Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Beitar Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv won every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
- 16 May 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 2 May 2026Beitar Jerusalem 4–2 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 16 February 2026Beitar Jerusalem 0–0 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 9 November 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–6 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 24 May 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 5–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 21 April 2025Beitar Jerusalem 3–1 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv
Beitar Jerusalem
- O. Atzili2 goals2 assists
- E. Ansah2 goals
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz5 goals1 assist
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assist
- O. Davida2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Beitar Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.76 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 2.16 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beitar Jerusalem rate 0.76 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 1.07 and 1.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem against 2.16 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Beitar Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.33 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beitar Jerusalem at home · Maccabi Tel Aviv away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Beitar Jerusalem 5, Maccabi Tel Aviv 5.
Beitar Jerusalem score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Maccabi Tel Aviv have let in 0 there.
Maccabi Tel Aviv score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Beitar Jerusalem have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Beitar Jerusalem
- at Hapoel Petah Tikva24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 44%
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 51%
- at Ironi Tiberias7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 50%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- vs Hapoel Haifa24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 57%
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 58%
- vs Maccabi Petah Tikva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 67%
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.