Beitar Jerusalem
vs
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Beitar Jerusalem 2–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
The model makes it 61% Beitar Jerusalem, 21% draw, 18% Ironi Kiryat Shmona — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 2.46, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.11.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Beitar Jerusalem are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Beitar Jerusalem are 5th on 12 points from 6 games; Ironi Kiryat Shmona are 12th on 3 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Beitar Jerusalem are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Hapoel Ramat Gan.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Maccabi Netanya.
- Last 6 meetings: Beitar Jerusalem 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 January 2026, ended Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Beitar Jerusalem.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Beitar Jerusalem vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beitar Jerusalem at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Beitar Jerusalem
- W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Haifa19 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Petah Tikva15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bnei Sakhnin7 September 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv3 September 2026
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L0-1away to Maccabi Netanya17 October 2026
- L1-3Hapoel Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
What these results say
- Beitar Jerusalem won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Beitar Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Beitar Jerusalem
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- 14 January 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Beitar JerusalemState Cup
- 4 January 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 20 September 2025Beitar Jerusalem 2–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 18 January 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–3 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 5 October 2024Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 13 May 2023Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Beitar Jerusalem and Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Beitar Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- O. Atzili32
- E. Ansah30
- B. Enow20
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Beitar Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.24 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.46 goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 1.11 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beitar Jerusalem rate 0.82 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.56 and 1.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Beitar Jerusalem a 7.1% chance of the title and Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beitar Jerusalem the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem against 1.11 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Beitar Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.89 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beitar Jerusalem at home · Ironi Kiryat Shmona away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Beitar Jerusalem 6, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 6.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Beitar Jerusalem have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Beitar Jerusalem
- at Ironi Tiberias7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 50%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 61%
- at Maccabi Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- vs Hapoel Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 36%
- at Hapoel Ramat Gan28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
- vs Maccabi Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 16%
- at Hapoel Petah Tikva5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.