Hapoel Haifa
vs
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Haifa 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
The model makes it 41% Hapoel Haifa, 30% draw, 29% Hapoel Petah Tikva — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 1.34, Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.02.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hapoel Haifa are 6th on 9 points from 6 games; Hapoel Petah Tikva are 11th on 4 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Haifa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Hapoel Ramat Gan.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bnei Sakhnin.
- Last 5 meetings: Hapoel Haifa 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Hapoel Haifa.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Haifa at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
- L0-2Hapoel Ramat Gan17 October 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Petah Tikva10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Beitar Jerusalem19 September 2026
- W3-1Bnei Sakhnin14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- L0-2away to Bnei Sakhnin17 October 2026
- D1-1Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv18 September 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Haifa5 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Haifa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Haifa.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hapoel Haifa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hapoel Haifa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 14 February 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 9 November 2025Hapoel Haifa 2–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 27 December 2024Hapoel Haifa 1–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaState Cup
- 3 February 2024Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–2 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 5 December 2023Hapoel Haifa 1–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Turgeman31
Hapoel Petah Tikva
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Haifa carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.23 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Hapoel Haifa and 1.02 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Haifa rate 0.53 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Petah Tikva rate 0.45 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hapoel Haifa a 0.1% chance of the title and Hapoel Petah Tikva 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Haifa the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa against 1.02 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Hapoel Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.59 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Haifa at home · Hapoel Petah Tikva away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Haifa 6, Hapoel Petah Tikva 6.
Hapoel Petah Tikva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Hapoel Haifa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Haifa
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
- vs Ironi Tiberias28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Hapoel Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
- vs Maccabi Haifa5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 24%
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- vs Hapoel Ramat Gan7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 13%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.